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Know when to hold 'em

WITH apologies to Kenny Rogers, every dream team player knows the secret to survival is knowing who to throw away, and knowing who to keep.

But that's where it ends, because not every team's a winner and not every team's a loser and, as far as dying in your sleep goes, I'm in no particular hurry.

By now, it's pretty clear that, if your team's no good, even an ace ain't gonna save you.

Take a glance down Punt Road way, for example.

It's going to take a couple of years of smart (or at least, less stupid) list management to turn that collection of jokers around.

Some dream team coaches probably feel much the same way right now. They drafted a group of players who have either bombed, or got injured, or have found themselves on the outer with their AFL coaches.

In the meantime, the bargain buys like Michael Barlow, Tom Scully, Jack Trengove and Alex Silvagni, are no longer bargain buys. The stakes have been raised.

With a maximum two trades per round and a strict salary cap, it's impossible to turn a pair of twos into a full house, let alone a royal flush, in time for this weekend.

However the meteoric rise of James Podsiadly, from an original value of $77,800 to $256,700, shows it's possible to up the value of your squad if you're lucky enough to find that wildcard.

A dream team coach who traded out, say Patrick Dangerfield at $244,300 for Podsiadly in round four, not only bolstered his or her hand with a forward who averages close to 100 points per game.

They also gave themselves an extra $166,500 in the bank to upgrade an average player (worth perhaps $300,000) into a first rater worth $450,000.

Do that four or five times over the course of the next four rounds, and suddenly you're back in the game.

Knowing who that next wildcard is, well that's the $64,000 (or perhaps $77,800) question, but it's probably someone yet to play an AFL game this season.

Dream team coaches who have a dud deck at this stage of the year, though, haven't got much to lose.

If a team needs a major renovation and a young player is set to make his AFL debut, why not throw down an underperforming, overpriced jack to pick him up.

Then use the extra money in the kitty to trade for a points king like Paul Chapman, Garry Ablett, Dane Swan, or James Bartel.

Right now, The Gavernators have a hand worth sitting on, and you gotta know when to hold 'em.

Not all coaches are so lucky, but it's not yet time to fold.

Look for that undiscovered diamond and, somewhere in the darkness, at worst you may break even. And in these final words you'll find that ace that you can keep.

THIS WEEK'S TRADES: none

DEFENDERS

Heath Shaw (Collingwood) $339,300

Luke Hodge (Hawthorn) $403,100 (vc)

Heath Scotland (Carlton) $392,200

Andrew Carrazzo (Carlton) $399,000

Matt Maguire (Brisbane) $262,600

Tadgh Kennelly (Sydney) $282,000

Ben Nason (Richmond) $227,900

Emerg: Phil Davis (Adelaide) $172,000

Reserve: Dylan Roberton (Adelaide) $89,500

MIDFIELD

Gary Ablett (Geelong) $548,000 (c)

Joel Selwood (Geelong) $410,500

Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn) $416,600

Danyle Pearce (Port Adelaide) $357,100

Jack Trengove (Melbourne) $298,100

Michael Barlow (Fremantle) $366,400

Emerg: Tom Scully (Melbourne) $298,100

Reserve: Dustin Martin (Richmond) $232,900

RUCKS

Aaron Sandilands (Fremantle) $423,200

Nic Naitanui (West Coast) $268,500

Emerg: Robert Warnock (Carlton) $157,700

Reserve: Jordan Roughead (Western Bulldogs) $94,500

FORWARDS:

Alan Didak (Collingwood) $397,200

Shaun Higgins (Western Bulldogs) $368,400

Robert Murphy (Western Bulldogs) $299,300

Jack Riewoldt (Richmond) $325,800

Lance Franklin (Hawthorn) $368,300

Steven Johnson (Geelong) $420,400

James Podsiadly (Geelong) $256,700

Emerg: Barry Hall (Western Bulldogs) $283,800

Reserve: Troy Taylor (Richmond) $89,500

Trades left: 11

Room in salary cap: $22,900

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My team
The Courier sports reporter Gavin McGrath shares his dream team journey with The Gavernators.

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