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My team: words of wisdom can be totally useless

SAVE it for a rainy day but he who hesitates is lost.

A stitch in time saves nine, however fools rush in where

angels fear to tread.

Wise sayings all, except for one tiny detail. They contradict one another completely and are therefore utterly useless.

Truth is, there is only one type of perfect wisdom. It is

called ‘‘wisdom after the fact’’.

You can adopt all the brilliant strategies you like but, in any game based on probability and chance — such as AFL dream team (and real life) — you cannot predict all outcomes. Play often enough and eventually you will lose, it’s a statistical fact.

Victory is about reducing that probability of defeat not

eliminating it entirely, and having contingencies for when probability kicks you a mongrel punt or a floater instead of the end-over-end drop punt you’d planned on.

Or when a team mate steps over the interchange line

when you’re in the action of kicking it — just ask Cyril

Rioli.

The best dream teams do that. Mediocre ones like The

Gavernators try to.

After round 17, dream team coaches would want to

have their ‘‘best team’’ in place, with just a few trades

left to cover injury and sudden drop in form.

Then along comes a week when your high priced assets

are quiet, your mid-priced players fail, and your cheapies (sadly) perform to expectation. If that has happened to you, then remember, it happens to the best coaches too.

Of the top 30 sides this year in the entire AFL dream team competition of 319,891 teams, six scored 2050 points or less last weekend. Mike’s Magic, the 28th best team in all of dream teamdom, scored 1992.

Meanwhile, the 72,789th best team scored 2368.

It is the business end of the season, with finals places up for grabs. Weaknesses in a dream team need to be

fixed urgently to avoid missing the September (or in dream team’s case, August) action.

A one-off, is a one-off, though. A poor score in a vital match does not mean it’s all over. It doesn’t mean

hacking previously reliable players from your team in a

desperate attempt to turn around one poor performance.

By all means, after a particularly bad round, offload

guys who are consistently scoring below 60 points or

are under an injury cloud.

But don’t throw the baby out with the bath water, because a rolling stone gathers no moss. Now there’s some wisdom for ya.

THE GAVENATORS

TRADES

IN: Dean Brogan (Port Adelaide) $278,500

OUT: Nic Naitanui (West Coast) $220,800

DEFENDERS

Bre ndan Goddard (St Kilda) $459,500 (c)

Heath Shaw (Collingwood) $313,200

Luke Hodge (Hawthorn) $417,900

Heath Scotland (Carlton) $361,400

Andrew Carrazzo (Carlton) $311,800

Bradley Sheppard (West Coast) $231,500

Dylan Roberton (Fremantle) $210,500

Emerg: Ben Nason (Richmond) $204,700

Reserve: Phil Davis (Adelaide) $180,900

MIDFIELD

Gary Ablett (Geelong) $430,900

Joel Selwood (Geelong) $447,600 (vc)

Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn) $412,600

Tom Scully (Melbourne) $303,500

Dustin Martin (Richmond) $318,400

Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood) $434,400

Emerg: Jack Trengove (Melbourne) $323,600

Reserve: Jordan Gysberts (Melbourne) $160,900

RUCKS

Aaron Sandilands (Fremantle) $417,200

Dean Brogan (Port Adelaide) $278,500

Reserve: Robert Warnock (Carlton) $166,500

Reserve: Jordan Roughead (Western Bulldogs)

$153,300

FORWARD S:

Alan Didak (Collingwood) $398,500

Lance Franklin (Hawthorn) $416,000

Jack Riewoldt (Richmond) $354,600

Shaun Higgins (Western Bulldogs) $316,800

James Podsiadly (Geelong) $296,100

Barry Hall (Western Bulldogs) $324,800

Emerg: Matthew Jaensch (Adelaide Crows) $208,100

Reserve: Jack Watts (Melbourne) $193,100

TRADES LEFT: 3

ROOM IN SALARY

CAP: $34,300

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My team
The Courier sports reporter Gavin McGrath shares his dream team journey with The Gavernators.

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