In doing so, it was insuring itself against the negatives that would come with a too-confident approach going in when the inevitable swing was known.

With a margin of 20 per cent, it was always unlikely that Labor would lose the seat. New member Jill Hennessy, like her predecessor Lynne Kosky, has the seat for as long as she wants it.

Even so, Labor's own polling had predicted a hefty backlash, possibly even heftier than what eventuated.

The 12 per cent swing away from it has seen both Premier John Brumby and Opposition leader Ted Baillieu claiming their own victories.

It is too early to translate Saturday's result into anything meaningful as far as the November election goes. Even so, Labor will be taking the result _ in particular the swing _ seriously.

Historically, by-elections deliver a swing against a government of around six per cent. To overthrow Labor in November, the Opposition needs a swing of 5.4 per cent.

If the 12 per cent swing _ or even half of it _ was a trend in November, Labor would find itself in trouble.

The key issues in Altona were public transport and public safety. That is not likely to change between now and November.

While public transport may not be as significant an issue in Ballarat come November, public safety certainly will be.

To be confident of holding either of its two Ballarat-based seats, Labor will need to roll out strong initiatives in this area to avoid a swing that could oust its sitting members.

Altona was a Litmus test for Labor and while it held on to the seat, it will be heeding the warnings that came with victory.

LOSS OF FOOTY CLUB WOULD DEVASTATE TOWN

A FOOTBALL club can be the lifeblood of a small country town.

At Gordon, the community is fighting to keep its club alive.

An emergency meeting has been called for February 24 in a bid to attract enough volunteers to ensure the club's survival.

Let's hope it gets the result it wants. To lose the club would be devastating for the town.