Dependent on which poll you believe is the most accurate, the Labor Opposition is set to win the November election with a small, or comfortable, margin.

The polling is remarkable in light of the campaign currently being run in Victoria.

Dr Napthine is clearly taking a hit in Melbourne where the East-West Link project is politically unpopular and the seemingly ongoing nuisance of Geoff Shaw has plagued the government.

However, the government is tracking better in regional Victoria, if Ballarat is any gauge.

The Coalition, backed by its country-based leader, has clearly targeted marginal seats around regional centres, just as Labor did in the lead-up to the watershed 1999 election.

It is more organised than it has been for some time in seats which it has not held for 15 years.

The constant visits from the current party leadership and ministers to Ballarat is a testament to the election plan. Possibly this approach has been detrimental to polling in metropolitan areas.

It would be unwise, in these circumstances, to dismiss the Coalition’s chances of retaining government.

What the opinion polls should ensure is that Ballarat leaders continue to push for commitments from both sides of the political ledger. 

Major commitments the Coalition have made to the relocation of VicRoads to the Civic Hall site and development of the Ballarat West Growth Zone are yet to be matched, or alternatives produced, by Labor.

Similarly, major projects such as the Eureka sports and entertainment precinct have been committed to by Labor but not the Coalition. We don’t expect both major parties policies to be identical, indeed we want a clear choice, but Ballarat is in desperate need for major project investment and, on this front, bipartisan support is essential.

Ballarat residents will eventually make a call on who they want to represent them locally. 

Whether that matches the state result, it’s difficult to predict even with the myriad of opinion polls.