Chances are he will lose his portfolio. The Prime Ministership is out of the question.

In modern Australia, great Treasurers and Prime Ministers are tied together, like a songwriting team.

Voters remember the classic pairs. Hawke and Keating. Howard and Costello.

But Hockey's record as Treasurer has not been good – as budget salesman, economic visionary, or policy wonk – and he has not been helped by his Prime Minister's political missteps and lack of economic nous.

They have both struggled from the moment they delivered their first budget, and their colleagues have had to spend a lot of time fending off accusations that the government's budget is unfair.

One of Hockey's biggest problems has been bad luck.

He has faced some of the most difficult economic circumstances in decades – just like his predecessor Wayne Swan – so he has had to spend his energy convincing Australians that life is about to get a lot tougher.

But he has not helped himself. There is more than one way to construct a budget. Yes he has had to cut down on spending, but his decision to go after the poor and less well-off in the way that he did has had political ramifications well beyond federal politics.

If someone replaces Abbott as leader on Tuesday and appoints a new Treasurer, that Treasurer will have to deal with the negative legacy of Hockey's budget.

But who could replace him?

Assuming Turnbull becomes Prime Minister, it's hard to imagine it being Julie Bishop, given how badly she did as Shadow Treasurer.

Some have been endorsing Andrew Robb as Treasurer. He has an economics degree and could probably do the job but he's hardly a compelling communicator.

He's unlikely to inspire the troops, let alone the punters.

And Turnbull does not like him much, given the role he played in precipitating the spill against Turnbull.

It's hard to imagine them having the sort of working relationship you would need between a Prime Minister and a Treasurer for that to be successful.

There are some on the right of the Coalition who would like Scott Morrison to be Treasurer because he's their darling after Abbott.

But whether Morrison can count beyond the number of boats remains to be seen.

The other name that some people mention is the younger Christian Porter, the former Treasurer of Western Australia.

Like a WA version of Peter Costello, he jumped shipped to federal politics because he came to the view that WA Premier Colin Barnett would never step aside for him so his best chance of advancing his political career was to go federal.

He's regarded as having the capacity to do the job, but it would say something about the depth of talent within the Parliamentary Liberal Party if they had to reach down that far to find the right person for the second-most important job in the government.

These are the types of conversations that are going on in Canberra.

However, the problem for any prospective alternative Treasurer is that the effectiveness of good Treasurers has always been enhanced by the ability of their respective prime ministers to communicate economic messages.

Does Turnbull fit that bill? Does Julie Bishop?

These are interesting times. Meanwhile, the next budget is due in three months.