SINGLE-income families in Ballarat will be hit dramatically by the federal budget, new economic modelling has found.
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These changes are expected to hit the region hard because of the higher-than-average levels of disadvantage.
The National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling has estimated losses of more than $3000 a year for some families through the benefit changes and other cost of living jumps included in the budget.
The Lewis family could be among the Ballarat residents to be stung by the July 1 changes.
Trinsa and Sam Lewis have three children, and Mrs Lewis said changes to Family Tax Benefit Part B would see them struggle financially.
“It would definitely (hurt us) ... we’re struggling as it is,” she said.
The Australian Council for Social Services estimated a couple household with two school-age children would lose $65 a week. However, Mrs Lewis agreed with the plan to cut the benefit once the youngest child turned six.
“When your kid’s six, you’d hope to be back in work,” she said.
Ballarat Centacare director David Beaver said the broader approach to family welfare in the budget needed to be looked at again.
“Anyone on a government allowance, if money was cut, they would struggle,” he said.
“The issue around cuts to Family Benefit B, especially for when the child reaches six, and they need to go to work, is when a mother needs to find a job. The whole package has to be looked at together – the childcare package, the cuts.”
The NATSEM modelling was ordered by the Labor Party, and on Monday was attacked by Social Services Minister Scott Morrison.
“The NATSEM model takes no account of those impacts of people being able to earn a wage rather than earn welfare,” he said.
More broadly, it found the poorest 20 per cent of households with children would lose up to 7.1 per cent of their total disposable income over the next four years after all budget measures were taken into account.
By contrast, households in the top 20 per cent with children, would see their disposable incomes increase slightly, by 0.2 per cent, by the end of 2018-19.
alex.hamer@fairfaxmedia.com.au