At the same time, Ankara ended a four-year ban on its anti-IS “coalition” allies using the huge Incirlik airbase near the Syrian border. Coalition aircraft will now be much closer to IS targets in Syria, and Turkey will also presumably close its border with Syria at last. But there may be less to this change than meets the eye.

    On Saturday, Turkey broke a two-year ceasefire with the PKK, a Kurdish revolutionary group. In fact, since then Turkey has carried out considerably more air strikes against the PKK than it has against IS. So which war is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan really planning to fight, the one against Islamic State or his own private war with the Kurds? And why now?

    Erdogan has spent more than a decade subverting a secular and democratic system and establishing his own unchallengeable power.  But he reduced the once-free mass media to subservience, undermined the independence of the judiciary, and staged show trials of his opponents. 

    As his power grew, moreover, he began to indulge his obsessions. He is a deeply conservative Sunni Muslim who shares the belief Shia Muslims are heretics whose power is a growing threat.

        At the same time, Erdogan opened peace negotiations with the PKK, because conservative Kurds who voted for his party on religious grounds were an important part of his electoral base. But then his party lost its majority in parliament in last month’s election.  What cost him his majority was the new People’s Democratic Party, which seduced most of his Kurdish voters away. 

    So if Erdogan wants to form a coalition government, he needs the support of the hard right – but they are ultra-nationalists who loathe his willingness to make deals with the Kurds. To win them over, therefore, he has started bombing the PKK. And on the side he has dropped a few bombs on Islamic State to make the Americans happy.

    Erdogan’s problem with Washington was that it finally had the goods on him. A US Special Forces raid in Syria last May killed Abu Sayyaf, the IS official in charge of selling black-market oil from IS-controlled wells into Turkey.

The American troops came away with hundreds of flash drives and documents that proved that Turkish officials were deeply involved in the trade, which has been IS’s main source of revenue.

        Is Erdogan still in cahoots with IS? Maybe. Is he actively supporting the other big Islamist group, the Nusra Front, which dominates the battle in western Syria? Yes he is, quite openly, and the difference between these two terrorist groups is only skin-deep. So if you’re expecting a radical change in the military situation in Syria – don’t. Assad is still losing slowly, the Islamist extremists are still winning, and Turkey is still playing a double game.