The wettest September ever recorded in Ballarat has fire management authorities worried that extra growth could fuel a horror season that will peak late in summer.
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The weather has also left the state’s leading environmental management authority unlikely to be able to conduct any controlled burning until late spring. Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning assistant chief fire officer Rachaele May said wet and sodden conditions “had inevitably shortened the opportunity for spring burning”.
“It is unlikely that any strategic burning will take place in central Victoria over the next seven to 10 days at a minimum,” Ms May said. “However, a majority of the burning program typically occurs in autumn when weather conditions are more stable.”
While the region has not experienced anything like the string of 30 degree days of October 2015, wet weather, coupled with warmer than average temperatures has spurred vegetation growth.
Central Victoria is likely to experience rapidly escalating fire behaviour in late summer fueled by predicted thunderstorms and late heat waves. Emergency Management Victoria is preparing for a shorter more intense season.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s manager of climate prediction Dr Andrew Watkins told The Courier above average bushfire potential was predicted for the whole of Victoria – particularly Central and Western Victoria.
“When we get into mid to late summer the warm temperatures and less rainfall may mean that extra growth will start to dry out,” he said.
“We’ve actually had very good rainfall into winter and early spring temperatures have been a bit warmer than normal causing good vegetation growth,” Dr Watkins said.
he warning comes as the region faces its first season in at least fire years without a Ballarat-based aircrane. The controversial firefighters enterprise agreement deal has also not been sealed and tension between volunteers, the state government and paid firefighters remain high.
Emergency Services Commissioner Craig Lapsley’s spokeswoman said the seasonal outlook predicted an above average fire season.
“Even with the recent and continuing rainfall an above average season is still a chance though the season is likely to be later and a little shorter.
The areas of Victoria not under water will start to dry out as the weather warms, promoting growth and potential fire risk across the state.”
The outlook, last month said strong late spring drying is likely in forest areas including the Wombat Forest.