With that comes a high bushfire threat across many of the state's most popular holiday destinations.

Grey skies and cool temperatures marked the last day of a cold, stormy spring in Melbourne on Wednesday, but Robyn Duell, a senior climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology, assures Melburnians that change is on the horizon.

"We're about to see a turn in the weather … we're on the cusp of experiencing a significant change," Ms Duell says.

The Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre released its updated season outlook for Victoria on Wednesday.

The red warning area on the map has grown, extending north-east towards Albury and south into Gippsland.

"It will be dry, it will be hot … and as we know in Victoria, all we need is those strong north-westerly winds and they're the days that bring the recipe together," says Craig Lapsley, Victoria's Emergency Management Commissioner.

Where will it burn?

The greatest risk for bushfires in December – particularly around Christmas  – will be in areas between Melbourne and Echuca.

The risk will be greater for coastal communities along the Great Ocean Road – from Apollo Bay to Torquay – come January and February.

"Anything from the northern outer suburbs of Melbourne to Echuca – in a straight line – will dry out by Christmas," Mr Lapsley says.

"The Macedon Ranges will be really dry. In fact, they are already dry and have a lot of fuel in them.

"So over that Christmas, New Year, period it will be central Victoria and western Victoria [at most risk]. The latter part of January into February will be the critical time for southern Victoria."

That is vastly different to last season, when 116 houses were lost in fires that raged through the sleepy coastal hamlets of Wye River and Separation Creek along the Great Ocean Road on Christmas Day.

The burnt-out hills above Wye River. Photo: Jason South

"I couldn't see that we will have major problems for any of the coastal areas for Christmas, unless we have a dramatic change in weather," Mr Lapsley says.

"We're only going to really start to see the hot weather come in around Christmas, and that's really the start of the drying period."

The imminent bushfire risk is in areas in central Victoria, Mr Lapsley believes, where the grasses have already dried out and farmers are already harvesting bumper crops.

Last year, it was so dry that there was no hay to be cut.

"It's a different season to last year. We've had one of the wettest winters on record and now we're moving into this period of prolific growth," Mr Lapsley says.

This season's first major fire – a grassfire at Swan Hill – occurred on November 21, more than a month after last year's first blaze.

Last year's first major bushfire was a planned backburn in the Cobaw State Forest at Lancefield that jumped containment lines on grand final day.

Heatwaves on the horizon

The first month of summer is set to be the hottest, with heatwaves expected to be a feature of December, but not so much in January or February.

There is a 60 to 70 per cent chance of conditions being both hotter and drier than normal in December.

December temperature outlook

January temperature outlook

"It does looks like it's going to be drier than usual and warmer than usual, particularly in the start of the summer season in December," Ms Duell says.

"We've got an increased risk of heatwaves in December, with the increased risk of bushfires as well. But we're looking at close to normal conditions for January."

The heatwaves will be fuelled by a belt of strong westerly winds, known as the Roaring Forties.

These winds, generated by a weather phenomenon known as  Southern Annular Mode, expand towards the equator, acting as a barrier to wet tropical rains reaching our southern state.

Remember, it's all variable - we're in Victoria, after all.

"We could get a dump of rain before Christmas, or we could get a really hot run, and it could change everything," Mr Lapsley says.

Know what to do on high-risk days

Mr Lapsley says Victorians should be preparing for the bushfire season in the coming weeks.

"Know where to get information, know what you're going to do with your pets, know what to do if you're travelling," he said.

Fire authorities have begun to build up resources in preparation for the summer, but the wet conditions have limited the number of planned burns.