Champion Data, the leaders of statistical analysis in the AFL, have long been using its 'premiership indicator' to produce a graphical representation of whether or not a club is in the premiership window - which has proven correct for 13 of the last 15 AFL premiers.

With the two exceptions being the defensively-minded Swans of 2005 and the fairytale Bulldogs of last year.

The graph takes into account scoring potency and the ability to hold-strong defensively – put simply, points for and against – that forms the parameters that history suggests a premiership hopeful needs to be hitting.

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In the AFL, using the sample size of the last 15 years, it has found that scoring on average greater than 100 points per game, as well as conceding fewer than 86 points is deemed as 'premiership ready'.

Of course there is more to winning a premiership than just two stats, but it highlights the two key numbers that make up the scoreboard and underlines the importance of being able to kick a winning score as well as having capable defensive structures.

So why not apply this to country football?

The Courier has sifted through the available data on the website and produced a similar sample size across the past 10 years for the Ballarat Football League.

The numbers show that nine of the last 10 premiers have scored on average greater than 97 points per game, with the only exception being Lake Wendouree (94.7) in 2010 whose home ground was an even mix of grass and mud at the time. 

While defensively, nine of the last 10 premiers have conceded fewer than 75 points per game - the exception being Redan (78.5) in 2011.

So which clubs are hitting the mark after nine rounds of the BFL season?

Applying this theory, Darley, Lake Wendouree and Bacchus Marsh are in the premiership window. Which is fairly self-explanatory given they occupy the top three positions on the ladder – but it does provide backing to their premiership credentials.

While the graph also outlines how far away other clubs are.

Melton South and East Point have no problem putting a score on the board, but both are a long way off the defensive premiership standard – both leaking more than 100 points per game. In contrast, Sunbury and Redan boast a premiership defence, but will be looking to add two goals a week to join the trio of flag fancies.

Ladder position                   points for (av) points against (av)

Darley                                           110.9               67.5

Lake Wendouree                          100.5               72.8

Bacchus Marsh                             99.8                 70

Sunbury                                         82.6                66.5

Redan                                            86.5                72.4

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Melton South                                 90.8                106.3

East Point                                     92.4                 102.1

Melton                                           64.3                 74.8

Ballarat                                         83.8                 101.9

North Ballarat City                        77.8                   95 

Sebastopol                                   53.3                  114.1

It should be noted that given these stats have been taken after nine rounds that not all clubs have played one another while not all sit evenly on eight matches played. This guide is based off end-of-season numbers, which has proved reliable over a significant stretch of time.