East Point and Bacchus Marsh will play in the Ballarat Football League finals.
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They should finish one-two.
For the remainder of the contenders though, there are no guarantees with six rounds to play.
Six sides - Darley, Sunbury, Lake Wendouree, North Ballarat City, Melton and Sebastopol - remain in the running for third to sixth and anything has the potential to happen.
Right now it appears that at least nine wins will be needed to play finals, but even this might not be enough.
There are so many possibilities, with just one result going against the trend having the potential to impact on up to three or four teams.
The last four places in the top six should go to the teams which do best in match-ups between the six sides in the running.
Some 14 fixtures fall into this category, with Darley, Sunbury and Lake Wendouree having three each.
North Ballarat City and Melton each have two.
While Sebastopol only meets Melton from within this group, but it also the only one of the six to play both East Point and Bacchus Marsh.
THE RUN HOME PREDICTOR
PREDICTION - FIRST
EAST POINT 40 points (round 12)
R13: bye (44)
R14: v Ballarat (h) – wins (48)
R15: v Melton South (h) - wins (52)
R16: v Sebastopol (a) - wins (56)
R17: v Redan (h) – wins (60)
R18: v Darley (a) – wins (64)
OVERVIEW
Should go through the remainder of the home and away season unbeaten and finish clear on top.
Only meets one team in the top six at the moment – Darley.
Sebastopol pushed the Kangaroos to within 10 points earlier the season and shapes as only other opponent with any hope of upsetting East Point.
PREDICTION - SECOND
BACCHUS MARSH (36 points)
R13: v North Ballarat City (a) – wins (40)
R14: v Lake Wendouree (h) – wins (44)
R15: bye (48)
R16: v Sunbury (a) – wins (52)
R17: v Sebastopol (a) – wins (56)
R18: v Melton (h) – wins (60)
OVERVIEW
A testing draw for the Cobras with all of their opponents fighting for a finals berth.
Cannot afford to drop their guard, but if at their best can go through the last phase of the season without a loss.
Even if it did drop a game, and it is possible given the what is on the line for rivals, Bacchus Marsh should still finish in second position and take a double chance into the finals.
Any loss will have an impact on the rest of the top six.
PREDICTION - THIRD
NORTH BALLARAT CITY (28 points)
R13: v Bacchus Marsh (h) – loses (28) *
R14: v Melton South (a) – wins (32)
R15: v Ballarat (h) - wins (36)
R16: v Lake Wendouree (a) – wins (40) *
R17: v Darley (h) – wins (44) *
R18: bye (48)
OVERVIEW
As one of six teams in the running for third to sixth, after three losses in a row North most likely cannot afford to suffer any more than one more defeat.
Its finals prospects could hang on the Lake Wendouree and Darley fixtures.
The battle for the last few places in the top six could go down to percentage and North does have a healthy percentage.
PREDICTION - FOURTH
MELTON (28 points)
R13: v Melton South (a) – wins (32)
R14: bye (36)
R15: v Sebastopol (h) – wins (40) *
R16: v Ballarat (a) – wins (44)
R17: v Sunbury (h) – wins (48) *
R18: v Bacchus Marsh (a) – loses (48)
OVERVIEW
The Bloods have a favourable draw, giving them every opportunity to end a long finals drought.
They should get a minimum 12 premiership points, but will need to play up to their best.
They cannot afford any lapses as they have been prone to in the past.
In predicting Melton to finish with 48 premiership points, the home ground factor against Sebastopol and Sunbury is crucial in this scenario .
PREDICTION – FIFTH
SUNBURY (32 points)
R13: v Redan (a) – wins (36)
R14: v Darley (a) – loses (36) *
R15: bye (40)
R16: v Bacchus Marsh (h) – loses (40) *
R17: v Melton (a) – loses (40) *
R18: v Lake Wendouree (h) – wins (44) *
OVERVIEW
The Lions’ season looks on a knife’s edge.
Sunbury’s form away from home has been a problem all season and with only two of its remaining five games at Clarke Oval this factor comes into play in a big way.
It is not that long ago that like North Ballarat City, Sunbury looked a certain finalist, but that is no longer the case.
The Lions have a tough draw and their campaign will go down to how well they play against Darley, Melton and Lake Wendouree.
PREDICTION - SIXTH
DARLEY (32 points)
R13: v Lake Wendouree (a) – loses (32) *
R14: v Sunbury (h) – wins (36) *
R15: v Redan (a) – wins (40)
R16: bye (44)
R17: v North Ballarat City (a) – loses (44) *
R18: v East Point (h) – loses (44)
OVERVIEW
There is nothing easy about the Devils’ run home, but as the reigning premier has shown on its day it is capable of beating anyone.
If Darley can get over Lakers as one of several “eight-pointers” that should just about be enough to get into the finals.
Darley’s fate like others will most likely be decided in the last two rounds.
PREDICTION - SEVENTH
LAKE WENDOUREE (32 points)
R13: v Darley (h) – wins (36) *
R14: v Bacchus Marsh (a) – loses (36)
R15: bye (40)
R16: v North Ballarat City (h) - loses (40) *
R17: v Melton South (h) – wins (44)
R18: v Sunbury (a) – loses (44) *
OVERVIEW
Lakers have already achieved more than anyone believed it would.
Now that it is so close to again playing finals, they will be disappointed if they do not finish in the top six.
Looks guaranteed to get to at least 40 premiership points, but that will not be enough in a battle which could go down to percentage?
PREDICTION - EIGHTH
SEBASTOPOL (28 points)
R13: v Ballarat (a) – wins (32)
R14: v Redan (h) – wins (36)
R15: v Melton (a) – loses (36) *
R16: v East Point (h) – loses (36)
R17: v Bacchus Marsh (h) – loses (36)
R18: v Melton South (a) – wins (40)
OVERVIEW
As the only team among the top eight without a bye remaining and the free premiership points which go with it, the Burra faces arguably the toughest road to reach finals.
They are also the only one of the six teams battling for third to sixth which plays both East Point and Bacchus Marsh.
They must at least defeat the bottom three in Ballarat, Redan and Melton South to have any chance. That is not negotiable.
Sebastopol almost certainly needs to get over Melton and even then that will not provide any certainties.
* Games which could easily go either way