Regional cities such as Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong are undergoing changes as dramatic as anything since the Gold Rush.
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They are far and away the most significant population and economic changes of the post-war era. What they augur for the future are wholesale changes to the appearance and operation of regional country centres.
Think population growth, new housing estates, CBD growth, new train services, new government offices, new health and social workers. Think cranes on the skyline, new stores, cafes, jobs, New investors and new faces - thousands of them. It's already happening here in Ballarat. The population's growing 2000 a year and we've cleared 107,000, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. By 2036, we'll reach 144,000. That's less than 20 years away and getting on to a 50 per cent increase on what we were a couple of years ago.
Economy-wise, Ballarat is quietly roaring. Gross regional product was $5.6 billion last year, well up on $4.9 billion two years earlier and $4.5 billion in 2011.
With national growth just 2 per cent, that's a sharply contrasting average increase of more than 7 per cent. Building approvals for the current fiscal year to the end of January total $342 million; with five months still to go, they're on track to pip last year's $494 million. It's particularly telling that just four years ago, in 2014-15, the while year's total was $362 million. Same goes for jobs. In 2018, Ballarat had 55,000. In 2016, it was 49,000. Again, an average 7 per cent a year.
With a range of new projects, infrastructure and people headed Ballarat's way, this appears set to ramp up sharply. Especially as Victoria's annual newcomers reach beyond the 150,000 mark.
There are multiple confidence factors behind the region's growing strength: the Ballarat GovHub with up to 1000 new jobs, affordable house prices, strong capital investment, great healthcare facilities, educational opportunities and more.
The Regional Australia Institute says another 2300 jobs will be created in Ballarat's health and welfare sector over the next four years. Improved rail links are tipped to cut commute time to Melbourne to just one hour. Amid all this, the economic barometer known as the housing sector is holding up positively in the regions while the metropolitan sector sustains a bloody nose, courtesy of over-inflated prices and the banking royal commission's credit crunch fallout.
Given Ballarat's price point, quality and lifestyle, it's no real surprise the secret's out. What's surprising is it took so long.
Julian Perez is Villawood Properties regional Victoria general manager.