Ballarat will welcome enough new residents by 2036 to fill a town the size of Warrnambool, recent population projections show.
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It is a prospect that has led one planning expert to warn of a potential "social disaster", but city leaders have said population growth should be a positive development for the area.
The Victoria in Future projections, the official state government population estimates released this month, suggest that 38,600 more people will live in Ballarat in just 17 years' time. That would bring the number of residents in the city to 145,930.
Talking to the ABC recently, Professor Michael Buxton of RMIT's Centre for Urban Research, had warned of developers "dumping more and more people on the fringe".
However, for the Committee for Ballarat's Professor Bridget Aitchison, growth should not necessarily have negative connotations.
If we proactively plan for it, growth can enhance the vitality of living in Ballarat
- Professor Bridget Aitchison
As chair of the committee's Liveability Project Team, Professor Aitchison said that well planned infrastructure was key.
"Growth does not necessarily equal worse," she told The Courier.
"If the City of Ballarat, the state government and the committee can all work together, then there is real hope."
She said recent population increases had benefited the city - citing its developing cafe and restaurant scene - and that further growth could do the same.
A larger population could increase the opportunities for more professional services to be based in the city for example, Professor Aitchison said - and it could also improve the potential to develop other areas, including the arts, technology and health.
"If we proactively plan for it, growth can enhance the vitality of living in Ballarat; if infrastructure lags, then problems will occur."
This is not just coming, but it's here. Ballarat is no longer just a big country town, it hasn't been for a long time.
- Justine Linley, City of Ballarat CEO
The potential "social disaster" scenario outlined by Professor Buxton is also one that City of Ballarat CEO Justine Linley unequivocally rejects.
Ms Linley said she had seen first-hand the dangers of badly managed growth in Melbourne's western suburbs, and said Ballarat planners were focused on making the city's growth areas liveable.
"The sky isn't falling in," Ms Linley said in response to Professor Buxton's recent remarks. "We're very keen to make sure we have very liveable places, very accessible places, green places that are environmentally sustainable."
A key to this, she said, would be to ensure growth areas remained within 10 minutes of essential services.
Growth was inevitable, Ms Linley said. "This is not just coming, but it's here. Ballarat is no longer just a big country town, it hasn't been for a long time."
Ms Linley said in-fill development was an area where the council could expand, suggesting the CBD had the potential to house around 1,700 more residents than are currently there.
Similarly to Professor Aitchison, she underlined the importance of council working cooperatively. "The council does need to be in partnership with other tiers of government, particularly for big infrastructure investments."
Ms Linley also struck a rare positive note for the potential for greater federal funding for the city, saying the Coalition's stated intention to decentralise could see funding released for big infrastructure projects. City leaders have long pushed for greater connectivity, including investment in rail as well as Ballarat Airport.
Despite the Labor Party's federal election pledge of $14 million funding for Ballarat Airport if elected, that was never matched by the Coalition.
"It [federal funding for decentralisation] is definitely on the agenda," Ms Linley said. "I would hope we in Ballarat get a share in that."
Back in March, figures revealed that Ballarat's population had grown by almost 2,000 new residents in a year with a growth rate of 1.8 per cent.
It showed Ballarat's current population standing at 107,325, according to the most recent available data, which recorded the estimated number of residents at the end of September last year.
Future growth is predicted to hover around the same rate, but this could even accelerate if major infrastructure projects such as the fast train to Melbourne became a reality.
READ MORE: Median Ballarat house prices reach $400,000
The three cities of Ballarat, Bendigo, and Geelong are expected to account for more than half of the regional growth in Victoria.
READ THE VICTORIA IN FUTURE 2019 REPORT
Other shires in the area are also growing fast, but at a smaller scale, with Golden Plains and Moorabool both set to register growth at 2 per cent or higher in the run-up to 2036. Golden Plains Shire is predicted to have a population of 33,070 by that time, with Moorabool Shire just shy of 50,000.
Geelong's rate of growth outstrips that of both Ballarat and Bendigo, a trend that is predicted to continue. To put this city's growth into context, Greater Geelong is predicted to expand by 2 per cent annually, with more than 108,030 new residents by 2036 - the equivalent of the entire city of Ballarat.
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