Meanwhile the signs of a city on the move are all around. Construction continues at pace on the GovHub site and the railway precinct. Every movement of the crane over the Civic Hall site brings the prospect of hundreds more professional jobs in the heart of the CBD closer to reality.

And the city's suburbs expand ever westward, with further growth areas already pinpointed for decades to come.

The boom time shows no sign of slowing.

But as more people arrive, will the jobs market keep pace? As the role of automation grows, can Ballarat provide enough employment, or could it, as a couple of observers warned, morph into a dormitory suburb of Melbourne? Can a bigger Ballarat attract and hold on to more skilled workers? Will new roles be sustainable? And stable? And can our population and jobs market expand without deepening existing inequalities?

With opportunities come risks: both the CEO of the Committee for Ballarat Michael Poulton and the federal representative Catherine King warn of the dangers of leaving people behind.

These are the fundamental issues the city will grapple with over the decades to come. The Courier has taken a closer look at the current state of the jobs market in the city, as well as asking key players for predictions.

The latest figures suggest there are 78,600 jobs in Ballarat, with 52,900 of those full time. By far the biggest employer in Ballarat is healthcare, which accounts for almost 15 per cent of the jobs in the area.

Despite the challenges on the high street, the number of people working in shops around the city continues to rise - much of it driven by growth in the outer suburbs. It remains the city's second biggest employer (9,400).

Construction unsurprisingly is also on the up (9100) while education is significant too (7,500), both at schools and universities. The fastest growing sector is tourism, with accommodation and food services adding more than 3,000 jobs to the city in the past five years (to 7,600).

Professional, scientific and technical services also climbed significantly.

At the other end of the scale, agriculture, forestry and fishing is shrinking fastest, the most recent statistics show - down by more than 10,000 employees in the past five years.

The level of manufacturing employees has stagnated but remains high (6,800) in a sector that has declined across Victoria.

Health and social care

Catherine King believes this sector - which she described as world-class in Ballarat - is likely to remain the city's main employer for many years to come. The mayor Cr Ben Taylor also cited the forthcoming expansion of Ballarat Health Services as a key project.

However, Ms King made a strong call for federal funding to boost the city's research industry, through centres like BIRCH.

Retail

In spite of the empty shop fronts in Sturt Street, the number of people working in retail in the city is increasing due to its growth. Would more CBD residents help? Planners hope so but the sector is likely to face more serious headwinds. Jodie Gillett, CEO of Commerce Ballarat, said retailers' online offering will prove key.

Education

A core sector for Ballarat is education, the city's third biggest employer. The shape of that may change, particularly at tertiary level. Federation University may have seen its first round applications from undergraduates drop recently, but its potential as a place of training for the renewable energy industry is exciting a number of observers locally.

More than one person The Courier contacted noted the potential of institution's Asia-Pacific Renewable Energy Training Centre, which is set to train people to service renewables industry, which is booming in the region.

Federation University's Professor Helen Bartlett also recently made the case for the Ballarat Technology Park and its positive effect on entrepreneurship and innovation.

Construction

Will it slow down once GovHub is done? In the short-term, perhaps not. If the council's Bakery Hill strategy - cited as a key by Cr Taylor - bears fruit there is likely to be significant redevelopment there too in the next few years.

And meanwhile, the suburbs keep getting bigger, with potential growth areas identified looking ahead to 2050. The sounds of bulldozers are unlikely to tail off.

Manufacturing

One of the most obvious areas of decline across Victoria, traditional manufacturing has also been under pressure in Ballarat. Several factories closed as a result of the death of the car industry, while recent economic wobbles have also been felt keenly here: MaxiTrans job losses, and the delays at Alstom being cases in point.

Many see change as inevitable but the sector's continuation as key. Dr Mary Debrett of Breaze sees the evolution of renewables projects in the region as an opening for renewables sector parts manufacturing for the industry might also be based here.

Local businessman Stuart Benjamin, meanwhile, believes food manufacturing will also be a source of growth. He also mentioned a relatively slow rate of job creation at the BWEZ site, described as the city's engine room of jobs and economic growth over the next 20 years. "Hopefully the large job numbers will be created in the remaining stages," he said.

Beyond the manufacturing industry, mining too, is a growth sector in Ballarat, outstripping growth in the rest of Victoria. If gold prices remain high - and the effect of the gold royalty does not bite - expect that to continue.

Tourism

This is the fastest growing sector in the city, and Cr Taylor has referenced its future growth potential.

While the jury is out about the impact of the council's decision to cut ties with Visit Ballarat, Cr Taylor said the intention was "to keep a steady increase" in visitor numbers, although he acknowledged the recent challenges of coronavirus and bushfire recovery.

Tourism?

It is the fastest growing sector in the city, and Cr Taylor referenced its potential for growth, citing the impact of the city's new Unesco Creative City tag. It would have little meaning to the average person on the Street but Cr Taylor argued the boost to the city's reputation will continue to attract people.

He acknowledges the challenges facing the tourist industry, including bushfires and coronavirus.

While the jury is out about the impact of the council's decision to cut its ties with Visit Ballarat, Cr Taylor said the intention is "to keep that steady increase."

The future for jobs in Ballarat: comments in full

How do you see the balance of jobs changing in 10, 15, 20 years?

Population growth will drive both supply and demand for jobs in Ballarat. More people means more job, which means we need people with the right skills to fill those jobs. In our current population approximately 10 per cent of people work outside of Ballarat, which means approximately 90 per cent work in the city. With increased connectivity, especially train travel to Melbourne and Geelong (within the 10-15 time period), we can expect more of the population to travel for work and a greater mumber of people coming to Ballarat to work.

The drive throughout the world, and our region is not immune to this, for greater levels of sustainability in all the things we do. Accordingly, the next generation of jobs will involved a greater focus on sustainable practice with the innovation that must accompany this.

What would you like to see happen?

Equity in the work place, that includes a greater levels of inclusion. Inclusion includes opportunities for older workers who in the 2010's would have retired. I would like to see us include a more flexible work environment where people in transition from full time work to retirement and continue to play a role.

There is also a need for us as a community to engage those who have been lost to the employment market to access work. Social disadvantage must be addressed through employment opportunities that are purposeful and builds self worth.

Work must be a place where people feel they belong, not just produce results. More job seekers are looking for a company's vibe when considering options. Companies need to step up and provide an environment that is welcoming for all people.

What are the dangers and opportunities?

The dangers are people get left behind and the benefits of a surging economy are not shared by all.

There is a danger that tech can dehumanises the work place. I see tech as a great opportunity. At its worse, tech has stripped us of an emotional contact and disconnected us. I see tech as a way of connecting people, as an enabler of possibility, as a tool that allows humans to focus on what they do best.

Any other remarks?

The workplace of the future will measure impact, not just the completion of tasks. Impact will be best achieved in collaboration such that Teams will be recognised for their capacity to work together, solve problems and innovate. Recognition of collaborative effort is what will the norm.

Flexibility will be the norm, with a greater focus on family friendly work places and hours.

Meaningful paid maternity leave, regardless of which parent takes it, will be a feature of our best companies in the future.

Finally, flexibility in the work place, allowing you to work anywhere at anytime, does not mean you should. Burnout and work place stress is an issue that we need to solve.

I think greater connection to family and friends will enhance wellbeing which will mean we are more productive when we are at work and when we are not.

Workplaces will see that more is not better and will provide the environment where energy for highly productive and effective work can be best achieved through balance and perspective.

The outlook for jobs in five, 10, 20 years time?

Two of our biggest employers now and into the future are likely to remain in healthcare and education. Beyond employing almost 30% of workers in Ballarat, these two industries contribute hugely to the liveability of our region. Travelling Australia with my work as Shadow Minister I know that regions across the country would love to have the healthcare and education that is available to us right here in Ballarat.

It is world-class, and it is a key driver in attracting and retaining young families in our community. The Victorian Government is getting on board in ensuring the continued strength of Ballarat healthcare with key investments like upgrading the Base Hospital, but we need the federal government to come along as well and provide funding to centres like BIRCH that will be key to sustaining a strong research industry in Ballarat.

At the same time, manufacturing remains an important industry for Ballarat, just as it has throughout our history. I want to see Ballarat remain a place where we make things - from trains and bricks through to chocolate bars and potato chips. To keep manufacturing we'll need governments that ensure that infrastructure projects are built with local parts and materials.

Into the future we will also need to see more investment in freight connectivity, including upgrades to Ballarat Airport that the Morrison Government is so far refusing to fund. Of course, a big part of maintaining industries is training new generations.

At the moment Australia has a shortage of bricklayers, plumbers, hairdressers, panel beaters and other tradespeople. This Government has cut $3 billion from TAFE and training and that has a real impact, particularly in regional communities like Ballarat.

Into the future knowledge-based service jobs are going to become increasingly important to regional economies like Ballarat. The hospitals, universities, and coming opportunities like the state government's GovHub give us a great head start in this but the challenge will be nurturing new talent and ideas, and making Ballarat an attractive place for them to build their lives and run their business.

What would you like to see happen?

I want to see members of our community working in well-paid and secure jobs. I would like to see us have a diverse regional economy which includes a mix of professions and industries and is resilient and sustainable in the long term.

I want to see the Ballarat community remain the welcoming, generous and inclusive place that it is today.

What are the dangers and opportunities?

We have important advantages based on our location, our rich history, and existing infrastructure and industries. Ballarat is blessed to have world-class healthcare and education right on our doorstep. We are the key city in western Victoria. We're a short trip from Melbourne, but we have all the benefits of living in a thriving regional centre. If we leverage these advantages correctly the future of our city is bright. Who wouldn't want to live here?

Ballarat's growing community is a great opportunity. It will make our city a more vibrant and exciting place to live with more jobs, wealth and entertainment options.

Of course however we will have to work to ensure that our community remains strong throughout this growth. We will have to welcome new residents to our city, engage them in our community, and ensure Ballarat remains a place where all are welcome. We'll need to remain wary of rising inequality and unaffordability, as well as investing in the services that will deliver benefits to all residents of Ballarat.

In an op-ed piece written last week, Cr Taylor highlighted the importance of CBD rejuvenation.

He wrote: "Strong, strategic framework for public realm improvements involving future-readiness work - the Bakery Hill Urban Renewal Plan, health, knowledge and city living precinct master planning, the CBD Strategy and the Creative Cities Strategy and old saleyards site.

"This will create a cohesiveness which will help tie together the significant development being undertaken - creating a high-amenity, accessible and thriving CBD and ensure planned, appropriate growth to the west. The Bakery Hill Urban Renewal Plan is an important element of our vision for how we will accommodate growth sustainably - it's a transformational project which aims to incorporate 100 per cent renewable energy, increased green space, a five per cent increase in new homes which showcase architectural excellence, with 600 new jobs and 5000 new residents."

Read the full piece here: How Ballarat is the next big thing

Cr Taylor also cited tourism as a potential growth area, although noted the challenges facing the industry at the moment with coronavirus and the international perception driven by the bushfires.

Speaking to The Courier on Friday, he said one of the key roles for the council for development was to facilitate new business, particularly ensuring enough land was available long term for industry moving in to the city. While he acknowledged uptake for the Ballarat West Employment Zone had not been as fast as hoped, he said the area would be key for growth.

(BREAZE stands for Ballarat Renewable Energy and Zero Emissions)

Rapid population growth is forecast for Ballarat and it seems likely this will be accompanied by business development. But what that business development looks like will depend to a large extent on state and federal government policies.

Will Ballarat become a dormitory 'suburb' of an ever expanding Melbourne or be revived as a centre for manufacturing? The latter possibility is on the horizon with an emergent renewables industry on our doorstep.

What would you like to see happen?

I would like to see climate policies from federal and state government that would drive the development of low/no emissions industries. Ballarat is situated in a region already identified as a centre of renewable energy with high solar uptake and an expanding number of wind energy projects.

Initiatives like Federation University's Asia-Pacific Renewable Energy Training Centre, which will train and supply technicians for wind farm projects, the solar industry and batteries, will see the creation of new jobs, hopefully based in this region. With sufficient support for Australia's renewables sector parts, manufacturing for the industry might also be based here.

What are the dangers and opportunities?

The dangers are that the renewables sector will be treated as political football as Canberra continues to treat climate change as a political issue and not an existential one. Investors like stability.

The opportunities are promising - the Grampians region could become a centre for renewables parts manufacturing and maintenance, and for expertise in the renewables sector.

There are also opportunities for Federation University to expand into training technicians for the bioenergy and geothermal industry as these develop, as Australia transitions away from traditional fossil fuel energy sources.

Another benefit of being a centre for renewable energy is that small scale manufacturing enterprises can take advantage of cheap locally-produced renewable power, an opportunity that will be enhanced with the anticipated fall of battery costs.

With continued global warming as indicated by climate modelling, it is likely that food security will become an issue Australian wide. Ballarat could play an important role in crop production, storage and processing.

This region is also well situated to assist in the transition away from large scale cropping enterprises into organic farming, a shift that brings environmental advantages including carbon storage, as well being a more labour-intensive enterprise that will employ more people.

Any other remarks?

While we are to a very large extent dependent on the policies and actions taken in Canberra, the current renewables growth in Ballarat gives reason to hope that this region will continue to be a part of Australia's emergent green economy.

Note: Mr Benjamin, the Chair of Regional Development Australia VIC Grampians, makes his comments here as a local businessman.

We continue to see a change to traditional manufacturing, however the strong growth in food manufacturing will be a source of growth for the future. The ability for us to add value to agricultural crops grown locally before they are shipped off to Melbourne or overseas is a massive opportunity.

Even part processing of some of these inputs would have a massive impact on job growth as well as environmental and cost benefits by removing production waste before shipping.

We are yet to see the 9,000 jobs boom in BWEZ. As business leaders and developers, we all supported this development as creating new jobs for the region. We are yet to see any new (to Ballarat) businesses locate to the development or the creation of any new-to-Ballarat jobs. Hopefully the large job numbers will be created in the remaining stages.

There is a high risk that Ballarat continues to only grow in the service economy and no longer "makes" things. While the service economy is important, we need to create wealth locally. This is achieved by actually developing and creating IP or physical products.

We also have a unique opportunity to become a new energy training and employment centre. The Asia-Pacific Renewable Energy Training Centre project being pushed by Federation University has the potential to train a future workforce, but also to encourage the establishment of head offices and manufacturing facilities here in Ballarat.

We continue to see massive escape spending losses, particularly in the professional services area. This is a massive opportunity that is not being addressed. In the past, the City had a rolling 5 year Economic Strategy, targeted to capture the $600m a year escape expenditure. It might be time to refocus our economic development activities back onto keeping that money local.

[Mr Benjamin defined escape expenditure as follows: Escape spending is money that could be spent here, but we choose to use businesses outside of the area. Often this is professional services such as accounting and legal services.]

How do you see jobs market changing in Ballarat over the next 10, 15, 20 years?

It is difficult to accurately predict what the jobs of the future will look like but the trend will of course continue away from task orientated jobs with increased automation and technological advancement.

Population growth will of course stimulate the job market in construction, health, professional services, hospitality and education but it is imperative that we keep a focus on developing industry sectors such as technology and manufacturing.

We must ensure we do not become a dormitory city for Melbourne and it is up to all levels of government but in particular local government to focus on the high level planning that will achieve this goal.

Retail is the second most important industry in the city at the moment in terms of employment. Do you see that continuing, and what steps need to be taken if so?

Again population growth will naturally impact on retail sectors in particular with essential day to day requirements but we know there is a trend towards online retailing. A portion of this is around price but it is also about convenience.

Our retailers must ensure they are in the online space, offering excellent product and an exceptional level of service. Retailers must be savvy in their business practices and constantly keeping an eye on gaps in the market and emerging trends.

What would you like to see happen?

[I would like to see] Ballarat businesses embracing the changing landscape and seeking new opportunities; Ballarat's job market becoming a destination of choice for school leavers and graduates; further decentralisation of government services, fast rail and investment in attraction of large scale organisations to our region; a continued focus on the health and prosperity of our CBD.

What are the dangers and opportunities in Ballarat's growth?

Dangers: The number one is long term strategic planning not being our focus. We must know where the jobs of the future are coming from and actively seek those industries and companies that will deliver this objective. Another danger is not keeping up with the infrastructure and services that will maintain the lifestyle that makes Ballarat the liveable city we love.

Ballarat is in a prime position to be the obvious choice for new industry and decentralisation of government departments with our proximity to both the metro area and the coast.

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