That's why councils across regional Victoria say a new tunnel from Sunshine to Southern Cross Station is the first step to provide massive benefits.

According to a detailed economic analysis, fast rail, with the tunnel, could bring a $189 billion boost to the state's economy in the long term.

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A non-trainspotter's guide to the Ballarat rail debate

The Stronger, Together alliance, which brought together councils and lobby groups from Ballarat, Geelong, Bendigo, Shepparton, and the Latrobe Valley, has long pushed for the new tunnel to be built as part of the Melbourne Airport Rail Tunnel project, which both state and federal governments have committed to.

Train capacity could soon be limited on existing lines, which would inhibit new faster trains to regional centres - the alliance argues the new tunnel would provide extra capacity to unlock the network.

In a detailed independent study by the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, the long-term economic benefits from building the tunnel are clear - these include a 5 per cent increase in gross state product, a halving of the wage gap between regional and metropolitan Victorians, and massive congestion savings.

The institute used a broad model, using decades of data, to measure the potential economic outcomes to 2060 - instead of using a cost-benefit analysis, several variables were examined, including commuting distances, hours worked, and population change.

"The economy does not settle down from the disturbance caused by a major transport project (until) decades after project completion. NIEIR circumvents this problem by constructing a dynamic comparison which plays out over the several decades of a realistic planning horizon," the report states.

By investing in fast rail to the regions, according to the report, over time more people would move to regional cities, which would support the creation of more jobs, which would in turn attract more people - a "virtuous cycle".

"Thanks to the economies of agglomeration, productivity along the rail corridors increases rapidly compared to Base case (with no rail upgrades), with an increase after 30 years of around 15 per cent," the report states.

One of the authors from the institute, Dr Ian Manning, said the outlook for Ballarat with fast rail was "favourable" - the model estimated a 56-minute trip between Ballarat and Southern Cross Station.

"Ballarat results are actually right at the peak (of the report) - what's currently happening in Geelong already, can happen in Ballarat," he said.

"Ballarat is already an urban centre of consequence - you've got the basic infrastructure, a lively community that brings people together in quite often creative ways, what that means is that Ballarat is there, ready to go, if we get the economies of scale and agglomeration."

Agglomeration is a key word throughout the report - the increases in productivity (output per hour worked) when large populations are able to interact.

Dr Manning noted the coronavirus would change some variables - there are more people telecommuting, for example - but fast regional rail would still encourage more people, particularly knowledge workers, to leave metropolitan areas if they were able to work flexibly.

"There's a big experiment going on at the moment, and we haven't got the results," he said.

"I suspect that gathering in central places will continue to be important."

There would also be benefits for smaller towns that are within reach of major stations, as populations spread outward, as well as similar benefits for metropolitan areas as population pressures are relieved.

Dr Manning added non-train users would benefit as well from the agglomeration, new jobs, and other factors.

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"The problem with the general assessment ... is that they tend to think the benefits are going to go to those who actually ride the train, or perhaps a few driving cars who face less congestion," he said.

"The problem is, when you take a longer term view, there's a lot of people who gain benefits from it who never go near the train."

The analysis estimates a 10-year construction phase, and a complete project - connecting Ballarat, Geelong, Bendigo, Shepparton and Traralgon with fast rail to Melbourne - in the 2030s.

According to the Committee for Ballarat's chief executive Michael Poulton, the report's conclusions, combined with the long-term construction jobs, make fast rail - and particularly a Melbourne Airport Rail Link tunnel, which would increase capacity out of the city - a winning prospect for the economy's slow recovery from the pandemic.

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"(It's) a post-COVID recovery that has a bold long term vision, (that) can set Australia up for the next 30 years and beyond," he said in a statement.

"Such a vision can include significant infrastructure that will deliver economic and social prosperity in much the same ways that other key visions such as Medicare and superannuation delivered economic and social prosperity 30 years ago.

"The NIEIR report makes the overwhelming economic, social and environmental case for investment in the next generation of fast, high frequency and reliable regional rail."

Mr Poulton encouraged the state and federal governments to look to the long term and seize the opportunity presented by building a new tunnel, instead of using existing infrastructure.

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"We've always been confident that investing in regional rail will energise regional Victoria, and now we know by how much," he said.

"The investment in MARL Tunnel, together with upgrades to regional lines and rolling stock, along with disentangling V/Line and Metro services, will deliver the economic growth that is desperately needed as we look for ways out of the COVID-19 recession."

Mr Poulton said the Stronger, Together alliance had sent letters to the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, federal Treasurer and Cities Minister, as well as the chair of the Standing Committee on Infrastructure, Transport and Cities, and the Victorian Premier, Treasurer, and Minister for Transport Infrastructure, which laid out the argument for building a new rail tunnel as part of the airport link project, backed by a business case and the new economic analysis report.

"The NIEIR study is transparent and the methodology and conservative assumptions used to derive the results are available to both the state and Commonwealth for scrutiny - including the full equation-by-equation specification in the report," the letter states.

"With a compelling strategy, economic impact assessment, and business case to consider, our alliance now seeks your respective engagement with Stronger, Together, in the interests of building a stronger and more liveable post-COVID Victorian economy."

Dr Manning said it was important to keep in mind the report is non-partisan, apolitical, and looking far beyond the current coronavirus crisis.

"We're talking decades - to persuade people to have a 30 to 40 year horizon on a three or four year political horizon is difficult," he said.

"We don't do the politics, we stand back now - it's our job to explain what we did but not to get down and do the advocacy job."

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The state government has consistently said it is keeping all options for an airport train on the table.

It has also allocated $100 million over four years for the Western Rail Plan, examining how to electrify and improve lines out of Melbourne to Ballarat and Geelong, following the $500 million Ballarat Line Upgrade project.

The federal government has committed $5 billion to the Melbourne Airport Rail Link project.

A private consortium has said it would commit $7 billion towards an airport rail project.

You can read the full NIEIR report online.

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