Planes sit idle in our airports, waiting for overseas passengers to return at some ill-defined point in the future. Many people are barely venturing out of their front doors - and the vast majority of us are not travelling very far from them.

Such is the unfortunate backdrop for a call for contributions to Ballarat's Traveller Experience Plan, a City of Ballarat-funded work in progress which aims to articulate a vision for tourism in the decade ahead.

At the beginning of the year, the picture was very different. The visitor economy was flying high before COVID-19 was on the radar. There may have been well publicised disagreements in 2019 - in particular the City of Ballarat's decision to discontinue $2.8 million of funding to Visit Ballarat, an arm's length tourism and marketing organisation.

However, the figures spoke for themselves. Late last year, accommodation and food services was the fastest growing employer in the region.

Tourism statistics for 2019 indicated a record 3,362,000 visits across the year, and 2,576,000 nights spent in the city.

In a bitterly ironic twist, when figures revealing the bumper year in 2019 were released in April, the industry was sinking into its worst crisis in living memory.

The city's best known attraction Sovereign Hill - still by far its biggest drawcard - had already been forced to lay off staff and shut its doors, an unprecedented move in its almost 50 year history. Workers were being laid off en masse as the pandemic bit.

A reprieve as restrictions lifted in May proved all too brief. It has arguably never been more complex to plot the way ahead, and last year's figures seem very distant. Can tourism in Ballarat ever return to those levels? Is the industry and its approach likely to change forever?

Even when restrictions lift next month (we hope), the most obvious difference will remain an almost complete absence of overseas visitors. Several Ballarat attractions have invested considerable money and focus in overseas markets recent years. Sovereign Hill used to have an office in China, and around 10 per cent of its market came from abroad.

International visitors have also featured prominently in strategies for other attractions - Ballarat Wildlife Park and the Creswick Woollen Mills to use the two most obvious examples.

With planes grounded, and people everywhere likely to remain cautious about long-haul travel, Australia's remote position is likely to make this situation even more acute.

Dr Peter Forsyth, a professor at Monash University who specialises in the economics of air transport and tourism, told The Courier he thought the aviation industry would come back - eventually.

"I think that air travel will recover, but it will be slow, especially for international travel to and from Australia," he said. "If things go well, it might recover in five years' time, but it will not catch up to where it would have been without the pandemic. Eg, traffic in 2025 might be where it would have been in 2013."

For Dr Forsyth, factors that will slow its likely recovery include the likelihood people will have less money due to the recession - and also their reluctance to travel.

"I think that overseas visitors will be slow to recommence visiting Australia," he said. "There are more risks in long haul travel, as many people have found out."

Sara Quon, the CEO of Sovereign Hill, says the aviation industry crisis inevitably means a re-adjustment in the way the attraction markets itself.

"While international travel and borders are closed we are unable to commit the same level of investment into these markets," she said.

"Once it is safe for international travel to resume, we will explore what the opportunities look like and determine what options are appropriate for us to take."

Ms Quon said research by Tourism Australia and Visit Victoria would be critical. "We will take the lead from the work they are doing to understand which markets are likely to return first and when," she said.

Enter the old adage of turning a crisis into an opportunity. Natalie O'Brien, a widely respected industry strategist who was appointed as CEO of Ballarat Regional Tourism last year, sees a "silver lining" in the profound difficulties of the moment.

All those people who would have travelled abroad in the immediate future will now be at home - with many presumably looking somewhere to visit within their home nation.

Ms Quon says the majority of Sovereign Hill's visitors come from Victoria - and that there was potential to build an even greater audience within the state. She called it "a tremendous opportunity to reach out and re-connect with Victorians once restrictions are eased."

Of course, as Ballarat shifts its focus to the domestic market, so too will every other destination in the entire nation - a challenge that is all too clear for Ms O'Brien.

"There is no doubt the competition to attract the domestic visitor will be the most competitive visitor market we have ever experienced and some clever planning and messaging will be required to restore traveller confidence," Ms O'Brien said.

Ms O'Brien, however, says Ballarat is well positioned compared to other regional destinations. The proximity to Melbourne is one obvious factor, Ms O'Brien said, citing research that showed an untapped market of 53 per cent of Melbournians who had not stayed overnight in regional Victoria. There was also a relatively greater proportion of visitors to locals, including more friends and family visiting the city.

A City of Ballarat spokesperson echoed that thought, saying Ballarat locals and their visiting friends and relatives would "play a key role."

Dr Elisa Zentveld, an associate professor of tourism and management at Federation University, specialises in the subject of tourism derived from visiting friends and relatives. She told The Courier more than half of Ballarat's visitors are friends and family of the city's residents. She echoed Ms O'Brien's view that this sector would be crucial.

"Early scenario planning has clearly identified that the first markets to move will be VFR (visiting friends and relatives) tourism travel, and family tourism," she said.

"People for the next few years are likely to be focused on connections with friends and family and avoiding places that are seen as unsafe which includes people caring more about hygiene standards, preferring to drive and preferring regional destinations."

Most of these voices and ideas will feed into the Traveller Experience Plan, when it comes to fruition. Ms Quon and Ms O'Brien are on the steering committee.

For some, the outlook towards 2030 is overly ambitious - Dr Zentveld among them. She sees little gain from articulating a long-term vision when the situation even next month is unclear.

"We cannot plan as we used to and should be looking at more immediate aspects," she said.

"The plan should be focused on the vision for the next three years with a focus on those markets already identified as being first movers."

Planning for events - a big plank in the way the City of Ballarat had positioned itself - have been in stasis but a spokesperson for the city said the would still be a focus.

"Ballarat's capacity to attract and host elite-level sporting events such as AFL matches and Rugby League, will also be a key contributor to our recovery," they said.

Questions do remain about overall strategy. Changes to the way tourism regions are banded together were under a state government review last year and still have not been confirmed - but are likely to see Ballarat grouped more closely with the Grampians, The Courier understands.

Many arguments were made, both for and against, the removal of funding for Visit Ballarat last year.

Some felt the sector was unfairly subsidised by the City of Ballarat, and dominated the city's conversation in a way that other sectors - some with far greater economic impact - did not.

Others felt Visit Ballarat was doing a good job at modernising the way the city was perceived - and help open it up to new markets. The 'Ballarat is Open' strategy touted as part of the replacement - and an ensuing Ballarat Prosperity Framework document designed as a blueprint to market the city - have done little to fire the imagination of the wider community.

Regardless of the politics of last year, the underlying reality is that leadership of the sector has been in flux at the most challenging point in its history. The very existence of a proposed Traveller Experience Plan, which is being overseen by external consultants TRC Tourism, stems from those changes.

In a few short months, the focus has shifted radically from whether the same momentum can be maintained to whether the sector can ever be the same again.

The ability to market the city coherently amid fierce domestic competition will be key to its recovery.

Roger Permezel, a tourism and hotel infrastructure consultant, said the city needed to keep moving away from the "old, cold and gold stereotype". He argued it needed to position itself "more dynamically as a vibrant, contemporary provincial city steeped in history, embracing its past, present and future."

"Underpinning the tourism plan needs to be a well-researched positioning strategy that clearly defines the various target markets and is able to differentiate Ballarat from our competition," he said.

Ms O'Brien said input into the new plan could help to define that point of difference. "Planning and leadership will be imperative to maximise Ballarat's opportunity to attract and convert the domestic traveller," she said.

Meanwhile Ms Quon, who could never have predicted the turn her role would take when she took on the CEO of Sovereign Hill back in 2018, sounded a positive note despite the tough times.

"By working together and being able to adapt and change, I am confident that we will continue to see strong visitor numbers to Ballarat in the future."

City of Ballarat spokesperson:

Australia's tourism industry was one of those most affected by the bushfire season over the summer and the current global COVID-19 pandemic. This impact which will be felt into the future, with Federal, State and city tourism bodies planning short, mid and long term scenarios to survive and re-build in this challenging time.

Ballarat has, and continues to be, a much-loved destination for short stays and weekends away. The strength of our tourism certainly features our heritage architecture, lake and gardens precinct but also the strength of the industry that drives it from our world-class attractions, art gallery and hospitality scene. Our priority remains supporting our industry during this time to ensure the strength of the offering into the future, and encourage our local community to do the same.

While COVID-19 has challenged us to the core, in many ways it has inspired people to travel close to home and re-discover regional tourism offerings.

Ballarat locals and their Visiting Friends and Relatives will play a key role in helping to stimulate Ballarat's visitor economy once restrictions are lifted - encouraging the domestic market back to our tourist attractions and into our cafes, shops and restaurants.

Ballarat's capacity to attract and host elite-level sporting events such as AFL matches and Rugby League, will also be a key contributor to our recovery.

One of the important learnings as a regional destination is just what we can achieve when we collaborate - whether it's with the venue next door - or our neighbours on unique experiences and events such as food and wine festivals, culinary tours and creative, hands-on, opportunities.

From Sara Quon, CEO Sovereign Hill

Do you think there is potential to expand on the domestic market beyond pre-Covid levels? How and why?

Australians spend approx. $65 billion 1 per year on international travel and with our national border closed for the foreseeable future, we expect there will be an increased appetite for people to explore their own backyard and visit places they've always wanted to go to, or to re-kindle previous experiences with families and friends.

The majority of Sovereign Hill's visitors come from Victoria and recent audience research tells us that there is even more potential from this audience with strong levels of awareness and positive sentiment.

So, there is tremendous opportunity to reach out and re-connect with Victorians once restrictions are eased. Outside of Victoria, there is also a unique opportunity to create a deeper connection with people from other states that will be looking to travel to Victoria. So, although times are tough right now for everyone in our industry, we remain optimistic that there is light at the end of this moment in time.

Sovereign Hill has invested hugely in the international market over a number of years. Is that same level of energy and commitment ever likely in the future - presuming a post- Covid recovery - given what has happened, as well as the fragility of current trade relations with China, and the pressures on aviation?

The international market has been an important source of visitation for Sovereign Hill and has played an important role in our recent story. While international travel and borders are closed we are unable to commit the same level of investment into these markets. Once it is safe for international travel to resume, we will explore what the opportunities look like and determine what options are appropriate for us to take.

Our partnership work with Tourism Australia and Visit Victoria will be critical here and we will take the lead from the work they are doing to understand which markets are likely to return first and when. Naturally flight availability and global economic factors will likely impact the speed of international visitation recovery.

Can tourism ever be the same in Ballarat as it was before? Should it be?

Ballarat is a terrific place to live, visit and do business. As a community driven not-for-profit we believe passionately in our community and its future potential to welcome visitors. Sovereign Hill has a valuable leadership role to play within our local community's tourism recovery through continuing our strong relationship with the City of Ballarat, and by seeking to strengthen our partnerships with other local businesses. By working together and being able to adapt and change, I am confident that we will continue to see strong visitor numbers to Ballarat in the future.

Any thoughts on Ballarat strategy generally: i.e. Any (re-)branding, audiences the city is failing to meet; any thoughts on who's going to drive the strategy city wide? What does the strategy need?

Sovereign Hill supports the City of Ballarat in driving a bold future vision for our visitor economy. As a community, we are fortunate to have a rich heritage and a powerful story to tell. It is our heritage and this story that gives us the credibility to look to the future and create a bold new vision. As an organisation Sovereign Hill supports the idea of using our past history to create future directions that will enable our city to evolve and grow, thrive and meet the challenges of the next 10 years and beyond.

NATALIE O'BRIEN, CEO Ballarat Regional Tourism

I think there is a silver lining for Ballarat in a very challenged tourism sector.

It is certainly true with current restrictions and borders closed it will be some time before we see international visitors in Australia but this also creates an opportunity for us to attract some of the international outbound market and in addition 53% of the Melbourne market that haven't stayed overnight in regional Victoria.

A piece of economic modeling was commissioned for each region across Victoria exploring two scenarios in May 2020. One scenario detailing a more cheerful result if the State opened after the first wave an a much slower and deeper recovery if we moved to a second wave as we are experiencing.

Despite the large falls predicted for the Visitor Economy it is predicted that Ballarat will do comparatively better than most other regional areas for a couple of key reasons we should leverage:

There is no doubt the competition to attract the domestic visitor will be the most competitive visitor market we have ever experienced and some clever planning and messaging will be required to restore traveller confidence. Planning and leadership will be imperative to maximise Ballarat's opportunity to attract and convert the domestic traveller.

As a destination our focus is on preparing recovery plans ready for industry collaboration to amplify the messaging together with a deeper analysis of all the truly special experiences we have to share for the time we are able to invite visitors back to Ballarat.

Roger Permezel, hotel and tourism infrastructure consultant

I sense the focus of the tourism planning group may be hard-pressed for need of a positioning strategy, the bedrock of successful tourism marketing. The values behind the long-standing positioning of Ballarat as "old, cold and gold" reflect on a traditional focus around history and hard-won fortune that has served the region well.

But that was yesterday and the tourism message today needs to portray Ballarat more dynamically as a vibrant, contemporary provincial city steeped in history, embracing its past, present and future.

Underpinning the tourism plan needs to be a well-researched positioning strategy that clearly defines the various target markets and is able to differentiate Ballarat from our competition.

The ideas coming forward all appear to have currency but the concern is without that positioning strategy, our tourism push is markedly product-led and we may be seen as just another regional destination offering a range of me-too experiences.

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