Coronavirus in Victoria: Dan Andrews' roadmap to recovery, what it means for Ballarat and regional Victoria

Key points so far:

• New cases have declined to just 63 across the whole state in the past 24 hours. Five more deaths recorded overnight.
• Ballarat's active cases down to just two, as of Sunday September 6.
• Modelling suggests lockdown measures needed until new daily cases drop below 25.
• Stage 4 lockdown to extend in Melbourne for two weeks with some softening of conditions.
  
• Restrictions to be eased slightly from September 13 in regional Victoria, which will move to "Second Step".
• Suggestions that regional Victoria schools could return almost to normal in term 4 if case numbers stay low. All students will return to onsite learning between 12 and 16 October in regional Victoria according to the Premier's statement.
  
• There will be staged easing of restrictions in regional Victoria, which will depend on reduced case numbers.
• Travel restrictions into Melbourne to remain for now. There is no clear timeline for when these will be lifted.

The steps towards a new 'COVID normal'

On Sunday, Premier Daniel Andrews outlined the process that he hopes will take the state towards a new 'Covid Normal' by Christmas time.

Outlined below are the four steps as they apply to regional Victoria. Note that the first step, which applies to metropolitan Melbourne, will not apply here.

Second Step:

This measure kicks in at 11.59pm on September 13. These are the changes:

• Public gatherings of up to five people from maximum of two households can meet outdoors
• Single "social bubbles", as per Melbourne, will apply
• A staged return to onsite learning for all students in Term 4
• Outdoor playgrounds and outdoor pools reopen

Third Step

The following will apply when regional Victoria reaches less than five cases on average over 14 days and zero cases with unknown source over 14 days:

• Leaving home allowed, no restrictions on reasons or the amount of distance you can travel.
• Public gatherings of up to 10 people outdoors will be allowed
• "Household bubble" can also include up to five visitors from another nominated household.
• Hospitality: predominately outdoor seated service, with groups limited to 10 people.
• Sport: phased return of outdoor under 18 years contact and non-contact sport; outdoor non-contact sport only for adults
• Funerals can have 20 people
• Weddings can have 10 people

Last Step

This is perhaps the most controversial for regional businesses, as it groups both metropolitan residents and rural residents together. Premier Andrews said this would not take place until at least November 23, and only if there had been no new cases for 14 days state-wide. In this stage, the following would be allowed.

• Public gatherings of 50 people outdoors allowed
• Up to 20 visitors allowed
• Hospitality: indoor groups limited to 20, seated service, cap of 50 patrons
• All retail shops, includes beauty and personal care services, can open.

Covid Normal

This happens when there are no new cases for 28 days and no active cases (state-wide) and no outbreaks of concern in other States and Territories.

• No restrictions on leaving home
• No restrictions on public gatherings but organisers encouraged to keep records of attendees
• No restrictions on visitors at home
• Schools open for onsite learning with safety measures
• Hospitality and retail all open
• No limits on weddings or funerals but organisers encouraged to keep records of attendees
• Galleries, museums and other entertainment venues open with safety measures and record-keeping

HERE'S OUR WRAP 

Thanks for following. Here's our summary of the announcement today and what it means for Ballarat and regional Victorians.

There was widespread disappointment in Ballarat today at the lack of concrete dates offered by Premier Daniel Andrews' roadmap to recovery.

Under the state government's plan, a so-called "last step", which would allow all attractions to reopen and restaurants to resume indoor service, will not happen until at least November 23.

That is dependent on there being no new cases across Victoria for 14 full days in the run-up to that date.

There was anger within the business community at the measure as it ties workers in regional Victoria, where there are now just 98 active cases, to metropolitan Melbourne, where 1,734 are currently suffering from COVID-19 virus.

As of Sunday, there were just two active cases in Ballarat.

David Canny, president of the Victorian branch of the Australian Hotels Association, told The Courier the measures would force hospitality businesses under - and said he would campaign for the Federal Government to intervene.

There will be a very minor lifting of Stage 3 restrictions in regional Victoria beginning on September 14 under the so-called "Second Step". Meanwhile the more stringent Stage Four lockdown in metropolitan Melbourne will be extended for a further fortnight, albeit with a few easing in conditions.

Any further lifting of restrictions will largely depend on a further decline in new cases. The "Third Step" is contingent on there being less than five new cases on average over 14 days - as well as there being no cases with an unknown source.

The Courier calculates that the current increase in new cases stands at under six per day in regional Victoria over the past fortnight - and that figure has been inflated due by the cluster in the Colac-Otway local government area.

If cases continue to decline at the same rate as they have over the past week, it could mean the conditions for a "Third Step" happen around the same time the "Second Step" is due to kick in. It is unclear what would happen if that were the case.

There is also no clear timeline for when those in regional Victoria with loved ones in Melbourne would be able to travel to see them.

There was greater certainty, however, for schools in the regions. According to the measures outlined on Sunday, schools in regional areas will begin a phased return in Term 4.

Pupils across all age-groups expected to be back on site the week beginning October 12, with VCE and VCAL students able to return to school grounds the week before that.

Mr Andrews said he was aware the measures would be a disappointment. He repeatedly urged Victorians to "stay the course" to avoid any further lockdowns - and said he was aiming for "something approaching a normal Christmas."

DETAILED EXPLANATION OF THE DIFFERENT STEPS

This gives more detail on what is planned for when.

How we work

HUGE DISAPPOINTMENT FOR HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY

Already The Courier is hearing this is a massive disappointment for those running hospitality businesses. One person says it will ruin the industry.

When can we see friends and relatives into Melbourne?

There is no clear timeline. Chief health officer says it is likely to be when regional Victoria and metropolitan Melbourne are more closely aligned in terms of active cases.

Aiming for a 'normal' Christmas 

Mr Andrews has reiterated that he is aiming for people to be able to spend Christmas with their loved ones.

I want all of us to stay the course so we can all have something approaching a normal Christmas

Premier Dan Andrews

The new COVID NORMAL

This is the ultimate aim and will happen when there are no new cases for 28 days, no active cases (state-wide) and no outbreaks of concern in other States and Territories.

This is what will happen under those circumstances:

• No restrictions on leaving home
• No restrictions on public gatherings but organisers encouraged to keep records of attendees
• No restrictions on visitors at home
• Schools open for onsite learning with safety measures
• Hospitality and retail all open
• No limits on weddings or funerals but organisers encouraged to keep records of attendees
• Galleries, museums and other entertainment venues open with safety measures and record-keeping

When will Regional Victoria move to the "Last Step"?

The "last step" as the Premier is calling it, will not happen until at least November 23, and is subject to no new cases happening for 14 days across Victoria.

Key points

• No restrictions on leaving home
• Public gatherings: Up to 50 people outdoors
• Up to 20 visitors at home
• Schools open for onsite learning with safety measures
• Hospitality open for seated service only
• All retail open
• Galleries, museums and other entertainment venues open with some restrictions

What is the Third Step? 

There is no date for this yet in regional Victoria. This depends on the daily average number of cases in the last 14 days hitting less than five cases and if there no cases with an unknown source in the last 14 days.

This is what will happen when those conditions are met.

• No restrictions on leaving home
• Spend time with others outside where possible
• Public gatherings: up to 10 people outdoors
• Visitors allowed at home from 1 other household (up to 5 people)
• Schools return to onsite learning from Term 4 with safety measures
• Hospitality open for predominately outdoor seated service only
• All retail open, except personal care (hairdressers open)

"Second Step": This is what happens at 11:59pm on September 13 in regional Victoria.

Regional Victoria will be able to move to the so-called "Second Step". This is what that entails, according to the government website (which seems to be buckling under the pressure):

Key points

• Only leave home for four reasons: school or work (if these can not be done from home), care or caregiving, to purchase essentials, exercise
• Public gatherings: up to 5 people from a maximum of 2 households can meet outdoors for social interaction (infants under 12 months of age are not included in the cap)
• Visitors to the home: "Single person bubble" 1 nominated visitor if living alone/single parent (all children under 18)
• Childcare is open to all children
• Schools return to onsite learning from Term 4 with safety measures
• Outdoor exercise and recreation allowed
• Restaurants and cafes open for takeaway and delivery only
• Retail: open, with density and other restrictions, hairdressing open

FULL STATEMENT FROM THE PREMIER

Regional Victoria

Here are a few of the key points for Ballarat and regional Victoria:

From 11:59pm on 13 September, people living alone and single parents will also be able to have a bubble. Up to five people will be able to gather together in outdoor public places - the park, the beach - up to a maximum of two households. By limiting it to two households, we're again limiting the virus's ability to spread.

Outdoor pools and playgrounds in regional Victoria will also open. And religious services can be conducted outside with a maximum of five people, plus a faith leader.For schools and students, we'll begin a staged return to onsite learning from Term Four.

All VCE and VCAL students - in Melbourne and regional Victoria - will attend onsite for the General Achievement Test and other essential assessments from 5 October. In regional Victoria, all students will return to onsite learning between 12 and 16 October and in Melbourne, VCE and VCAL students and Prep to Grade 2 will also return for onsite learning from the 12 of October.

Melbourne lockdown extended two weeks

Key points from broadcast

• Premier confirms that Ballarat has just two active cases - no new ones from yesterday.
  
• Other numbers include 19 new cases in Geelong and four in Bendigo.
  
• Lockdown lifting in Melbourne delayed at least two weeks.
  
• In Melbourne: Curfew will be softened - 9pm rather than 8pm.
  
• Exercise will be extended up to two hours.
  
• Playgrounds will reopened during extended lockdown.
• Staged return of school for term 4 if numbers if average daily cases between 30 and 50 at that point, public gatherings will be extended up to 5 people from two households.

Again Premier Andrews stresses how quickly it spreads:

One person, one case, less than a week, in one country town, 24 people have got this virus It does spread like fire.

Premier to speak at noon

See live broadcast below.

Ballarat protest falls flat

In case you didn't read our report yesterday on the planned Freedom Day protest in Bridge Mall - well, there was not a huge amount to see apart from a farmer's market and lots of police.

Read our full report here:

Freedom day protest: protest falls flat as Ballarat police issue multiple fines

Ballarat leaders want certainty

Here's a reminder of what business and civic leaders in Ballarat said they wanted out of today's announcement earlier this week:

Coronavirus in Ballarat: Leaders call for certainty on easing restrictions

This is Ballarat-based Australian Hotels Association Victoria president and Red Lion publican David Canny:

What I'm hearing is we need some hope on Sunday, people are on their knees crawling towards this date

A model for recovery?

A lot of attention has been focused on modelling work carried out by the University of Melbourne, which has also been released by the government. It suggests there is more than a one in two chance of another lockdown before the festive season if measures are eased when there are more than 25 cases per day. And that's as an average over 14-days. You should be able to read the modelling report below.

What's the latest in Ballarat?

Note that we only have figures from Saturday. However, the trend in the city has been going in the right direction for the past week. As of yesterday, according to the DHHS, there were just two active cases in the Ballarat local government area.

Other numbers around the region as follows:

In Moorabool Shire there are still eight active cases, which is the same as yesterday, although there has been a downward trend this week. This number was as high as 14 at the start of the week.

In the Pyrenees Shire there remains one active case after the re-emergence of the virus more than a week ago.

According to the government postcode map, the case is in the Avoca postcode, but little more is known.

Traditionally one of the shires with the lowest virus numbers, there have been just three cases confirmed in the Pyrenees throughout the pandemic.

In Golden Plains there are zero active cases, while Hepburn remains without an active case, having had two in total.

Here are the full details of the COVID-19 cases in our region

Will lockdown continue?

That's certainly the line in the Herald-Sun. Here's today's front page.

The DHHS confirms numbers

As has been the trend in recent weeks, the DHHS has confirmed the number of new cases early in the day. They are down to their lowest level in weeks.

Warning that lockdown may continue

Here is this morning's report from AAP:

Victorians have been warned daily coronavirus cases might not be low enough by mid-September to safely ease restrictions, raising the prospect of more months under lockdown.

University of Melbourne modelling says based on current levels of social distancing, the 14-day case average is likely to be around 63 cases by the middle of the month.

The modelling released by the state government overnight on Saturday argues re- opening at this point would risk a resurgence, undoing all the gains achieved from lockdown.

On Friday, Victoria's 14-day case average was 116. On Sunday, it recorded 63 new cases and five more deaths.

This takes the state's total fatalities to 666 and the national death toll to 753. Premier Daniel Andrews was on Sunday expected to outline a pathway out of stage four restrictions for metropolitan Melbourne and stage three restrictions for regional Victoria.The restrictions, which were imposed for six weeks in August were due to end on September 13.

The government was holding meetings late into Saturday night to nail down how and when Melbourne and regional Victoria will come out of their lockdowns. The Victorian community and especially Melburnians, who have been subject to nightly curfews, workforce shutdowns, limits to local travel and bans on social visits, want relief.

The government has already flagged that single people who live alone could be permitted to have a visitor as concerns grow about the mental health effects of prolonged social isolation.

Mr Andrews said on Saturday the pathway out of the lockdown "will give us a 'COVID normal' that we can lock in so that as we look to Christmas and to 2021 we have every confidence we can have a stable set of rules".

Discontent in some quarters has grown throughout Melbourne's lockdown, with a small minority expressing opposition to the premier's cautious approach.Police arrested 17 people and issued at least 160 fines on Saturday for taking part in an anti-lockdown rally in the city.

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