More homes are being built in the Ballarat region than ever before, the latest official figures suggest.
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On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its detailed breakdown of building approvals for new residences until the end of 2020.
The figures show that in the first six months of the 2020/21 financial year, almost 1000 new homes were signed off in the Ballarat local government area. A total of 977 new residences were approved - 879 detached homes and 91 "other residences", which would include townhouses and units.
That construction rate has already overtaken the level for the entire 2017/18 financial year, and stands at more than 75 per cent of the 2018/19 building approvals - the previous highest in recent years when 1300 new residences were approved.
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The total value of the new building work so far is calculated at more than $400 million.
While population in the Gold Rush era grew more exponentially than now, the number of physical new homes being built each year may be unprecedented.
Local developers and builders said the trend outlined by the ABS data reflected their experience on the ground - and suggested a demographic shift from big cities to the regions was another factor likely to keep the local building industry busy.
Rob McMaster of GJ Gardner homes said he expected demand to continue well beyond the deadline date for the government HomeBuilder stimulus.
Nick Grylewicz of Integra said a recent release of land lots put out by his company in Lucas sold within three hours - suggesting demand for builders was likely to continue for some time as new lots are titled and prepared for new homes to be constructed.
"It's a record - we have not seen anything like this before in our time," Mr Grylewicz told The Courier.
Mr McMaster in the meantime said the federal government Homebuilder stimulus had been instrumental in driving demand. The initial grant of $25,000 for people wishing to build new homes was announced in June last year, triggering a rush to builders who could lay the first foundation stone in time.
"It's been a fantastic stimulus for our industry," Mr McMaster said. "Every builder and trade supplier [has] been extremely busy."
[Federal Government Homebuilder grants] have been a fantastic stimulus for our industry. Every builder and trade supplier has been extremely busy.
- Rob McMaster, G.J. Gardner Homes
He said he noticed a slight dip towards the end of last year, but a revised HomeBuilder grant of $15,000 announced in late November had kept demand high.
It is a clear indication anyone in the local building trade is unlikely to struggle for work in the short-term at least.
There could, however, be disappointment for some hoping for financial assistance from the HomeBuilder grant, with workforce shortages likely to come into play.
"All builders have a large body of work to work their way through," Mr McMaster said. "There are a lot [of builders] struggling to get trades to build their houses in the Ballarat area."
Both Mr McMaster and Mr Grylewicz believe the building approval rate is likely to remain high even once the stimulus ends. Builders have six months from when applications for the latest version of the HomeBuilder close at the end of March for construction to start and allow homeowners to receive the full grant.
Mr Grylewicz said there had been a shift in demand around three years ago, culminating in the latest, unprecedented movement. He said one stage of 25 lots at Lucas sold within a week earlier this year - and more recently 15 lots released for the Lucas Grange were gone within three hours.
Mr McMaster said he believed land sales such as those would ensure there was a "steady flow" of work some time after the HomeBuilder grant effect ended.
Affordability, record low interest rates and demographic changes are also playing a big part in the trend, Mr Grylewicz said. "Data shows there has been the biggest shift from metropolitan to regional Australia in the last quarter."
"We think Ballarat is growing at around two and a half per cent, which is probably the strongest growth it has had in a long time."
Government investment in social housing is another factor that keep the momentum strong for the building trade, he added.
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As land in existing growth areas dwindles, there has already been significant attention on where future homes in Ballarat will be built. Work is being done to prepare new residential growth zones around Mount Rowan to the north of the city, as well as to the west of the current Ballarat West Growth Area.
In September last year, councillors voted to accelerate the process to establish the new growth areas as the rate of building growth became clearer.
A council officer report at the time highlighted growing pressure on availability.
The recent figures also highlight the balance of growth on the urban fringes compared to "infill" homes being built in more central, established areas.
Ballarat has a long-term strategy of aiming for 50 per cent "infill" growth with 50 per cent expansion on the urban fringes. Since that Ballarat Strategy 2040 was formulated in 2015, there has been a significant drop in the percentage of growth within established areas.
Of the homes approved so far this financial year, 706 were in Delacombe and Alfredton compared to 55 in the central Ballarat area.
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