Medical experts have roundly criticised changes made to testing and isolations rules announced in recent days, accusing the federal government of prioritising political expediency over public health.
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Melbourne University epidemiologist Nancy Baxter said the narrowed definition of close contact and limits on eligibility for PCR testing, in the absence of other protective health measures, made it all but certain the current Delta-Omicron wave would "burn through Australia", notwithstanding the country's relatively high vaccination rates.
"The government is not thinking in a precautionary way - in a way that even considers the worst-case scenario," Professor Baxter said. "Their decisions bank on everything being best-case scenario."
"Their approach is 'hope for the best and plan for the best', which is simply not the way you do public health."
The criticism comes amid back-to-back record-breaking days of new coronavirus case numbers in Australia, with over 31,000 cases detected across the country yesterday alone.
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With 26 new cases and 113 active cases, Ballarat also shattered its own record for COVID numbers yesterday, as cases state-wide surged to nearly 6000, up from 5137 the day before.
Under the changes announced by National Cabinet this week, a close contact - defined as anyone who had spent more than four hours with a person who had returned a positive PCR result - would be permitted to leave isolation after seven days if they returned a negative rapid antigen test (RAT) on day six of their isolation.
Confirmed positive cases, meanwhile, would only be required to isolate for one week, without any need to return a negative RAT test before their quarantine period ended.
We all know you can pretty easily catch covid at work or at a restaurant, but now we're somehow being told we don't have to worry ourselves about those contacts at all, which is just not true.
- Epidemiologist Nancy Baxter
Free PCR tests would now be limited to people who met the definition of a close contact or who otherwise had symptoms.
Australian Medical Association president Omar Khorshid said the changes, ostensibly made with a view to preserving testing capacity, would "come at the cost of accelerating the outbreak" and appeared to "put politics over health".
"We will miss so many more cases with this new, more narrow definition of a close contact," Dr Khorshid said.
"Anyone catching Omicron in a restaurant or pub, for example, and who is asymptomatic won't know they're infected and could pass the virus on to vulnerable people."
Dr Khorshid said government was gambling Omicron would not prove as virulent as previous strains.
"It seems National Cabinet is prepared to bet a massive Omicron outbreak won't cause large numbers of hospitalisations," he said.
"[But] hospitalisations will rise in coming weeks simply due to the very large number of cases."
Professor Baxter, likewise, said the changes played down the known transmissibility of Omicron, which had been shown to be twice as contagious as Delta, itself a highly transmissible strain.
"We all know you can pretty easily catch covid at work or at a restaurant, but now we're somehow being told we don't have to worry ourselves about those contacts at all, which is just not true."
Professor Baxter said the changes, taken as a whole, dangerously assumed Australia's relatively high double vaccination coverage alone could withstand the consequences carried by the explosion in daily case numbers.
"There's no question the strain on testing sites we've seen [in recent days] could not continue - they had to make a change," she said.
"But these changes have been made without also implementing other measures that protect people, like density limits, ensuring everyone has had their booster and making sure people have free access to high-quality, well-fitting masks and rapid antigen tests.
"Instead of following the lead of other countries, the [government's] approach here is, 'we're changing our language and we're hoping you don't notice or understand the impact of what that could mean and good luck to you'."
In recent weeks, a number of studies have cast doubt on the effectiveness of the protection afforded by double vaccination in a person infected by Omicron. The findings were particularly dire with respect to a person whose primary vaccination course was AstraZeneca, with protection against Omicron waning to zero four months on from their second dose.
The research, however, also revealed an mRNA booster shot restored immunity against asymptomatic disease to over 70 per cent, thereby sheeting home the importance of a third vaccine dose.
But with children under the age of 11 still unvaccinated and much of the population yet to receive a booster shot, Professor Baxter predicted the daily explosion in case numbers would eventually overwhelm the health system.
"If we can get boosters in people fast enough, I'm hopeful that ICUs might be able to cope," she said.
"But the truth is our hospitals are very vulnerable - there's only so many beds, so many nurses, only so many doctors that can take care of people.
"It is going to become much more challenging to see anyone in the emergency department, whether you're a covid patient or you've broken your leg or you've had a heart attack."
Professor Baxter said while she was hopeful the health system would not get to the point of "total collapse", she was certain "we'll get to the point where we're not providing a standard of care anywhere close to what we're providing now".
"The chicken is going to come home to roost on this one, for sure," she said.
Since November, Ballarat Health Services has had a specially adapted marquee-like structure outside its emergency department on standby, as a precaution for potential rises in coronavirus presentations.
BHS acute operations executive director Ben Kelly told The Courier the tent would limit the risk of transmission by enabling hospital staff to treat milder cases of coronavirus separately from general emergency department patients.
"[It] also ensures that beds in the COVID-19 ward and in our ICU are available for patients who are experiencing more serious symptoms," Mr Kelly said.
On Wednesday, Grampians Public Health Unit medical director Rosemary Aldrich said it was important members of the community take precautions to limit the spread of infection, such as mask-wearing, booster shots and, if catching up with some people, doing so outdoors.
"We really need people to be still taking responsibility for their own risk [as well as being] mindful of their risk to others," Ms Aldrich said.
"We're not out of the woods at all."
With Melanie Whelan
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