A third massive growth zone in Ballarat's north-west will be added to greenfield development by the City of Ballarat at its meeting on Wednesday night, if councillors approve an officer recommendation to apply to the state's Planning Minister for rezoning.
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It comes as the city's officers increase their forecast for Ballarat's projected population in the next 20 years to almost 200,000 people.
The North Western Growth Zone is located to the west of Ballarat, covering parts of Lucas and Cardigan.
It is delineated by the railway alignment to the north, Dowling Road and the Ballarat-Skipton Rail Trail to the east, Cuthbert's Road to the south and partially by Draffins Road to the west. It is bisected by Remembrance Drive
One of four mapped growth zones, it was rejected for planning amendment by council three years ago.
Instead the Northern and Western Growth Zones were identified as key areas for potential growth in a vote at the October 2019 council meeting, with two objections.
The rejection was strongly criticised by a major landholder at the time. Thorney Investment Group (TIG)*, owned by Alex Waislitz, holds the majority of land in the zone, which had been earmarked for the Federation Lakes golf resort.
The chief operating officer of TIG at the time called the process identifying the growth zones as 'completely dysfunctional', saying he was inadequately consulted about the decision.
However, with council suggesting new figures of a potential 2040 population of 185,000 or 160,000 quoted in the agenda (both numbers are given), and an 'aspirational population' of more than 200,000, the council's director of development and growth Natalie Robertson has now added the third zone, reporting that council's existing Ballarat West Growth Precinct forecast land supply will be insufficient for requirements under the enlarged projections.
Covering a total of 690 hectares, of which 500 hectares is potential housing, council estimates the number of houses which could be constructed on the former farmland at 5000, with a population of 12,500.
There is currently no infrastructure in the zone, including sewerage.
House numbers are reckoned by council at 15 dwellings per hectare, giving each home a potential 666 square metres.
However this figure is an estimate; other existing developments in the area have a far greater concentration of homes on smaller lots, down to 250m2.
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- Development reform is a slow process, but the City of Ballarat has moved towards change
- Ballarat planning challenges: overcoming a state government addicted to demolition
- Planning expert Professor Michael Buxton gives warning about Ballarat's growing pains
Most of the growth zone land is owned by large development companies in Melbourne and Ballarat, who stand to make hundreds of millions of dollars if the amendment is approved.
The Courier understands developers have lobbied the City of Ballarat consistently for rezoning, as is their right.
"The north-western growth area has been viewed as a longer term growth option to accommodate future populations. Given the City's current position for land supply it is important to consider this area for future growth planning if population projections increase at a higher rate than currently forecast," Ms Robertson posits in the agenda.
"This additional growth area will be needed where an aspirational population of over 200,000 is projected in the future and there is merit to considering this area for future growth."
RMIT Emeritus Professor Michael Buxton says while the population forecasts are generally accurate - 234,500 people in the Ballarat region by 2046 at a projected growth rate of 1.2 per cent, and 145,930 for the City of Ballarat by 2036 at a growth rate of 1.7 per cent - Ballarat has a bigger problem.
"The problem with Ballarat planning is that the council is planning to locate far too much of the projected growth in new outer suburbs, which are some of the worst-designed in the country," Professor Buxton says.
"Simply putting most of the new growth in such suburbs is the lazy way to accommodate growth and creates long-term social, economic and environmental problems.
"Ballarat could easily locate most of the growth in the established city without adversely affecting heritage. But this would involve planning."
The City of Ballarat's Planning Scheme 'aspires to achieve all new housing supply equally split between 50 per cent infill and 50 per cent growth areas in line with the vision for a vibrant and consolidated Ballarat.'
Currently the figures are 30 per cent infill and 70 per cent greenfield.
Eleven submissions were received on the zoning, with none objecting. Submitters are not identified.
Councillors will vote on the following officer recommendation:
That Council:
- Apply to the Minister for Planning in accordance with Section 8A (2) and (3) of the Planning and Environment Act 1987 to obtain authorisation to prepare Amendment C221ball to the Ballarat Planning Scheme, by: (a) rezoning the growth areas to the Urban Growth Zone in accordance with Attachments E, F and G; and (b) preparing a policy amendment which introduces a new 'Housing Framework Plan' to support the next phases of planning.
- If authorised by the Minister for Planning under Section 8A (2) and (3) of the Planning and Environment Act 1987, exhibit Amendment C221ball to the Ballarat Planning Scheme in accordance with the notice requirements under section 19 of the Planning and Environment Act 1987.
- Commence preparation of a Precinct Structure Plan for the northern growth area following application of the Urban Growth Zone.
- Notes that the Ballarat Housing Strategy should ultimately be the mechanism to determine the extent of future growth and infill development across Ballarat.
- Authorise the Director Development and Growth to make minor changes to the planning scheme amendment documentation as required.
- Notes that the 'Growth Areas Framework Plan' will be prepared to establish the most appropriate sequencing of Precinct Structure Plan preparation for the western and north-western growth areas, aligned to sustainable development principles and the likely or planned construction of infrastructure and community facilities to support well-planned and sustainable communities.
*Thorney Investments is a major shareholder in Australian Community Media, which owns The Courier.
