For the past five years the maximum average temperature in Ballarat in the first month of winter has sat firmly around 11.5 degrees, but in 2022 that figure has dropped almost a full degree to 10.6C.

Interestingly, Ballarat's average low for the month was 4 degrees - at the warmer end of average low figures in the past ten years.

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This data met expectations laid out by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in the winter 2022 Climate and Water Outlook which reported eastern states would have cooler than average daytime temperatures, and across Australia, nights were 80 per cent more likely to be warmer than average.

The BoM report also predicted above average rainfall for nearly everywhere in the country.

In Ballarat, June saw 67.4 millilitres of rain.

The conditions can be attributed to slowly weakening La Nina system and a natural climate phenomenon that influences rainfall patterns around the Indian Ocean, known as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

Both are associated with warmer ocean temperatures near Australia which means more moisture over the continent and stronger low pressure systems in the south - equalling lower daytime temperatures and higher rainfall.

BoM announced last month the 2021-22 La Nina weather event had ended, updating its status to 'WATCH'.

But BoM's head of long-range forecasting, Dr Andrew Watkins, said this does not mean there's a drier July and August ahead.

"A La Nina WATCH does not change the outlook of above average rainfall for most of Australia over coming months," Dr Watkins said.

"The Bureau's long-range outlook remains wetter-than-average, consistent with model outlooks from other global forecast centres, reflecting a range of climate drivers including a developing negative IOD and warmer-than-average waters around Australia.

"This pattern is likely to increase the chance of above average winter-spring rainfall for Australia."

BoM reports all climate modellings suggest a negative IOD will likely form in the coming months.

And while the 2021-22 La Nina has ended for now, another La Nina event is about 50 per cent likely to form again this year.

Don't put your rain jacket away just yet.

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