Despite falling numbers of active COVID cases there are still 28 people in Ballarat Base Hospital with COVID, as hospitalisations lag about two weeks behind actual cases.

Grampians Health chief strategy and regions officer Dr Rob Grenfell said the real number of active COVID cases would never be known with estimates that as few as a 25 to 40 per cent of cases were actually reported.

"That's one of the problems - the case figures are excellent and they are coming down but we focus on what we are seeing come to hospital and that is also going down," he said.

"What's happening at the moment ... is that we have a very good vaccination rate in the community and that means many people have contracted COVID while being fully vaccinated so have not ended up in hospital, or worse.

"What we are also seeing is that as so many people in our community have contracted COVID, and some surveys suggest as many as 45 per cent or higher, the virus is losing candidates to infect which means we see a drop-off."

Dr Grenfell said he expected to see "sporadic outbreaks" for the rest of the year but nothing like the surges the state have endured from the Omicron variant strains this year.

"I don't think we are actually going to see it disappear ... but we might get a little bit of a reprieve for a while," he said.

Dr Grenfell said predictions of another wave of COVID in Australia in November were "bold" but could not be dismissed.

"We have obviously been scouring the globe for new variants as they appear and nothing has poked its head up yet," he said. "Winter in Europe is going to be the time when the virus declares what's going on and to spread across Europe would require it to be a new variant."

But with the current BA4/5 variant still moving throughout the Ballarat he urged people to ensure their vaccinations are up to date and to continue taking sensible precautions like wearing a mask, minimising gathering in large groups, and to stay at home if you are sick.

Ballarat's Catholic primary and secondary schools enjoyed a four-day weekend from August 12 to 15 as a planned "circuit breaker" weekend to help reduce staff and student absences due to COVID and flu, and allow for families and staff to recharge.

Dr Grenfell said vaccination was still key to help protect the wider community.

"Natural immunity after you have had COVID does decrease quite rapidly after about three months which is how people have been able to get COVID a number of times with different variants, and we also know that immune coverage (after vaccination) also drops with time which is why we have been having booster doses.

IN OTHER NEWS

"Many people will have had their third dose at the start of the year so their immune levels are not as high so they should consider having the fourth booster through this period, because there's always the chance that when you get COVID you will get so sick you have to be hospitalised."

And he urged people to register their positive COVID result not only to give an accurate picture of how much COVID is in the community, but so antiviral medication could be prescribed to those eligible.

"If you've got a positive test, particularly if you are elderly, please report that test to the health department because you may be eligible for antiviral drugs and if you start those early in the infection it does significantly decrease the severity," he said.

"In our region we have been using them since they became available and we have certainly reduced the number of our most vulnerable members of our community ending up in hospital."

Now just one tap with our new app. Digital subscribers now have the convenience of faster news, right at your fingertips with The Courier. See how to download it below: