LAKE WENDOUREE v BACCHUS MARSH
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at Wendouree Reserve, Saturday, 2.15pm
LAST TIME: Lake Wendouree 12.10 (82) d Bacchus Marsh 7.19 (61)
LAKE Wendouree and Bacchus Marsh each has a burning desire to finish on top of the Ballarat Football League ladder.
However, it has nothing to do with any bragging rights which might go with being the minor premier.
The Lakers and Cobras want the prize that goes with it - a "home" qualifying final.
Rival coaches Gavin Webb and Travis Hodgson have made no secret of their want to play in front of a home crowd - Webb with Lakers at the Eastern Oval and Hodgson with the Cobras at Darley.
And of course each camp naturally wants to win what promises to be one of the games of the season.
Hodgson said it would be great for Bacchus Marsh people to have the club's first senior finals appearance in more than a decade played in the town.
"It's certainly an incentive."
He said the Cobras were also naturally eager to get a win over Lake Wendouree, which had been the benchmark of the competition, before the finals after letting their clash earlier in the season slip.
Hodgson is expecting finals-like pressure with no shortage of intensity from Lake Wendouree, which he considers as an ideal warm up for the finals given that few of his players have finals experience.
While Bacchus Marsh has an unchanged line-up, Lakers have regained two of their biggest names in Nick Peters after a one-match suspension and Steve Clifton, who is fit again after a depressed cheekbone fracture, as well as versatile tall Tom Carey. Peters and Clifton are potential match-winners, along with leading goalkicker Andrew Pitson and Ben Taylor.
If it is to be Bacchus Marsh's day, Jarrah Maksymow, Damian Cupido, Cam Richardson and ruckman Daniel Burton will be to the forefront.
And when it comes to X-factor, look to North Ballarat Roosters-listed Bailey Edwards for Lakers and Hamish Coulton for the Marsh.
PREDICTION: Lake Wendouree
REDAN v BALLARAT
at City Oval, Saturday, 2.15pm
LAST TIME: Redan 11.15 (81) d Ballarat 7.7 (49)
REDAN (5th): the Lions have made the important additions of Dan and Matt Colbert, Jacob Short and Dean Mathews as they come off a bye. Coach Eammon Gill is naturally keen to have Redan bounce back from its last-start loss to Lake Wendouree and go into the finals on a winning note. Liam Hunter will miss with suspension, but Nick Sullivan has recovered from a heavy knock two rounds ago and this match should comfortably go the way of the Lions.
BALLARAT (9th): Ash Baker ends his four-year tenure as coach and although it will be business as usual this will be a little more difficult than he had hoped for. Lachie Cassidy and Glen Coleman return to the Roosters in the VFL, while one of the Swans' most consistent Tom Stapleton (ankle) misses with injury along with Brad McDonald (shoulder) and Brendan Smith (hand). Daniel Hobbs is also unavailable. Phillip Vivian, Tom Mooney, Brandon Schmidt, Bailey Fraser, Jack Blackburn and Toby Fisher have been called up as cover.
PREDICTION: Redan
SUNBURY v DARLEY
at Clarke Oval, Saturday, 2.15pm
LAST TIME: Sunbury 17.17 (119) d Darley 14.14 (98)
SUNBURY (3rd): with third position secured, the Lions are giving Grant Valles (finger) another week to ensure he is right for an elimination final. Why would you take a risk with a potential match-winner? Coach Rick Horwood was more than satisfied with the way Sunbury dealt with North Ballarat City and after doing so much work to get into such a strong position the Lions are not about to fall away now. Sunbury has named Port Melbourne VFL-listed Daniel Toman, who needs one more game to qualify for finals, as an emergency on the chance he might be available.
DARLEY (6th): will the real Darley please stand up? The problem is no one, not even the Devils, know which is their real persona. It is amazing that the reigning premier remains in the finals hunt. To finish in the top six and extend the coaching reign of Jarrod Edwards, Darley almost certainly must win and on its latest form that looks out of the question. Barring Sebastopol upsetting East Point, it's good night Darley. Under-16.5 talent Zak Butters has been called up, fresh from being named Vic Metro under-16 best and fairest.
PREDICTION: Sunbury
MELTON v NORTH BALLARAT CITY
at McPherson Park, Saturday, 2.15pm
LAST TIME: North Ballarat City 25.19 (169) d Melton 4.4 (28)
MELTON (8th): somehow the Bloods need to pick themselves up after a second half capitulation against East Point. It was just too bad to be true, but the damage has been done. Statistically Melton can make finals, but it has to rely on too many outside influences for this to come to fruition. First of all, it has to beat City and this can be its only focus as it has no control over the other factors. If coach Brad Murphy can orchestrate a win, it will be more impressive than pulling a rabbit out of a hat.
NORTH BALLARAT CITY (4th): it has been a solid week on the training track for City as coach Jordyn Burke works to ensure his players are in prime condition for a finals campaign. "It's important we finish on a strong note." He wants nothing less than to go into the finals confident, especially after the disappointment of dropping a game to fellow finalist Sunbury. City has been hot and cold, but this is one game that it will surely be up for - even in what could be tricky conditions at Melton. Josh and Sam Bromley-Lynch return from injury to bolster running power, but Keenan George and Daniel Kilpatrick will be missed.
PREDICTION: North Ballarat City
SEBASTOPOL v EAST POINT
at Marty Busch Reserve, Saturday, 2.15pm
LAST TIME: East Point 17.16 (118) d Sebastopol 6.6 (42)
SEBASTOPOL (10th): the Burra provided the upset of the year when it defeated reigning premier Darley. Can it produce another monumental surprise by beating East Point and with it ending the Kangaroos finals hopes? The odds are against it, but you can never say never in what will be heavy conditions, which will not suit East's running game. Sebastopol loses Daniel Cox back to North Ballarat Roosters in the VFL, but has reason to go into this fixture with spring in its step after an improved campaign and coach Shane Snibson and marquee player Brett Goodes locked in place for another year.
EAST POINT (7th): win and there is every chance the Kangaroos will be playing finals. If Darley produces the unexpected against Sunbury it will not matter what East does, but the Kangaroos cannot worry about that. All they can do is focus on what they can control, and this has been a message from outgoing coach Glenn Wilkins. East Point loses Nick Weightman to the Roosters and big forward Brad Whittaker and regains Luke Faull after suspension.
Surely with so much on the line the Kangaroos will be on song.
PREDICTION: East Point