The 20th century history of tobacco consumption is a copy book example of free-market opportunity; a flourishing commodity demand indifferent to consequence, followed by slow, painful cold-turkey driven by regulation and the habit’s real costs.
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At the close of the second world war three quarters of all Australian men smoked. For women the number peaked about one third in the 1970s. That decade also marked the great slow turning point of an industry that had hitherto done what it wanted to the first steps in marketing control, health warnings and restrictions.
Four decades on many controversial restrictions such as plain packaging, heavy excise and indoor bans have wrought enormous change, all driven by a dual objective; more people quitting, less people taking up the habit.
Current smoking rates are around 14 percent in Australia and while the push to get this to 10 percent by 2020 looks steep the historical shift adds up to an enormous victory for health advocates, a huge cost saving for the health system and an almost unknowable multitude of better health outcomes over the long term.
But the twentieth century shadow of tobacco is long. As an example, if the smoking rates in the 1976 were 43 percent for men and 33 percent for women, then we are still paying heavily for the legacy of all the 20 year olds who took up smoking then and at 60 now are feeling the malignant effects.
The cost according to the Federal Department of Health is still colossal; 15,000 Australians deaths and $31.5 billion. Smoking is increasingly a lower class habit with the rate at 28 percent amongst the lowest fifth of earners. This means huge excises hit the poorest hardest but also how much more effort and resources are needed to target these demographics.
But capitalism is a vacuum and will fill whatever space it finds in the market. Enterprising if amoral opportunists have capitalised by-selling cut price cigarettes outside the regulation of the law. Every poor smoker who opts for cheap and dodgy tobacco instead of facing the trial of quitting due to cost is being short changed on their health. Unregulated tobacco also has “who knows what” additives.The lost tax revenue, according to the AFP, is $1.5 billion nationwide, enough to build a hospital or countless quit campaigns. To the superficial observer it may seem harmless enough but it is not a victimless crime.
