Statistics may be able to tell any particular truth you care to put forward but there is one picture that speaks volumes about where Australia and Victoria is going. It is the latest snapshot of regional population growth from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. While not as accurate as the census which will be released later this year, it is the best statistical calculation on just where the population growth is occurring, how quickly and in what proportions.
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People mean prosperity. The adage may be overly simplistic but it does point to the interdependence of people as consumers, employers and contributors and consequently the ongoing economic and community health of any location.
But the devil is also in the detail. Looking again at the map there are two distinct shades and it reads like a red hot target - where Melbourne is a bright red, verging on black in places, and this fades to a pallid wash of population declines in the outer regions. The exception is a few patches around the more flourishing of the regional cities.
In many ways this is a picture Victoria could crow about. Victoria is the fastest growing state, increasing by 2.1 percent and eclipsing New South Wales and Queensland both at 1.4 percent. Melbourne also has the largest growth of all capital cities at 2.4 percent ahead of Brisbane and Sydney.
But another way of looking at this is that 82 percent of the growth over the year is in the coastal cities. Or put another way, in one year the increase in Melbourne’s population - 107,000 people- is like adding another Ballarat each and every year. This rate of growth has also doubled since 2000.
Little wonder congestion is such a fierce issue in capital cities and the problems of infrastructure lag are a daily bugbear of residents, and a headache for business and politicians alike. A closer look at these growth areas with double digit increases in population over a single year can then mean the inverse of prosperity; growing trouble hotspots with a future legacy of social issues. By contrast, the two percent growth Ballarat is enjoying (and slightly higher than Bendigo) seems infinitely more manageable even if a great deal of it is concentrated in its western growth area. From a local perspective the lessons are simple; good planning and forward action to ensure the infrastructure building keeps pace. From a national perspective this contrast places even more emphasis on the need to balance out the colours on this map.