If the aggressive focus on youth crime by the Victorian opposition in recent weeks is anything to go by, this year's state election campaign is going to be bruising - especially if you're a young person of African descent.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
Last week, in the wake of Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton's comments that Melburnians were too scared to go out for dinner, a tidal wave of people, largely from suburbs unaffected by issues of youth violence, hit back on social media. This was a perfectly safe city in which to dine, they told Mr Dutton.
The poll taken by ReachTEL for The Age on Friday shows, though, that those living in low-crime neighbourhoods may underestimate the depth of concerns about youth violence in high-crime suburbs such as Tarneit and Cranbourne.
Nor do they understand just how vulnerable families have been made to feel by terrifying home invasions like that seen on Thursday in Hillside. Events like it, though rare, are occurring and spark genuine fears.
One look at the social media feeds of Opposition Leader Matthew Guy or his scrutiny of government spokesman Tim Smith shows the Coalition is trying to stoke these genuine fears from a small flame into a bonfire.
Why else would Mr Smith, the MP for Kew, disgracefully use a brazen car theft in Campbellfield last week as a reason to compare carjackings in South Africa to what's happening in Victoria?
He tweeted that Melbourne was "being turned into the Johannesburg of the South Pacific because of the weakness on crime of the Andrews Labor government".
Another car jacking in Melbourne...We are being turned into the Johannesburg of the South Pacific because of the weakness on crime of the Andrews Labor government. https://t.co/vEzGGTF38w??? Tim Smith MP (@TimSmithMP) January 3, 2018
Crime statistics from the South African Police Services show the province Johannesburg is in, Gauteng, had 8610 carjackings in the financial year ending in 2017. Victoria, by comparison, had 139 carjackings or attempted carjackings in 2017, the Crime Statistics Agency reported.
The Coalition's focus on law and order follows a pattern. In the lead-up to the 2010 Victorian election, violence against Indian students - a genuine issue - was co-opted to imply all of Melbourne was under siege. The Coalition's popular promise to place PSOs on railway stations was part of that campaign. It helped make Ted Baillieu premier.
Last week, The Conversation AU editor and former Age journalist Misha Ketchell wrote of a strategy by the Coalition at federal and state levels to manipulate gang violence fears for political gain.
What The Age's poll on Friday indicates is that there is every chance this strategy is a miscalculation. While fanning the flames will incite fears, voters appear to overwhelmingly believe Premier Daniel Andrews will be more effective in dealing with the issue than Mr Guy.
