THE most likely outcome from Tuesday’s federal Liberal Party meeting in Canberra is that Tony Abbott will remain prime minister, at least for the short term.
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It’s remarkable that a little more than a year into the new government, leadership speculation has invaded the entire political debate.
Politicians, it seems, have short memories.
The constant backstabbing and destabilising impact of undermining the leadership was, after all, the key downfall of the previous Labor government.
Changing the leadership of the Victorian Liberal leadership from Ted Baillieu to Denis Napthine was possibly necessary but ultimately painful at last year’s state poll.
At local government level, Ballarat has had a merry-go-round of mayors in the current four-year term, the instability signified by the fact that the previous two heads, John Burt and Josh Morris, resigned before the end of their terms.
What is it about political leadership which has seen the untouchable regularly becoming the hunted?
The reality is there are a number of factors – impatience, around-the-clock scrutiny and changing society values – but perhaps the more important question is how to break the cycle.
It has become clear in recent years that the many respected and qualified future leaders of our councils and our state and federal governments are simply not willing to stand for public office. A lack of financial reward, long periods away from home and an ability to influence at least the low-level important issues provides little incentive for people with great life experience to raise their hands.
The void is being filled by career politicians.
As longtime Liberal stalwart Andrew Robb described it on ABC radio this week: a person who attends university, joins the young Liberals or a union, becomes a junior political staffer, or a local councillor, and then works their way into a safe seat.
It’s a stereotypical and simplistic view but adds weight to why leaders are often undermined.
Staffers and politicians are so used to listening to the ideology that the people are forgotten.
While Australia’s political history is littered with examples of spiteful leadership battles, our greatest policy initiatives – many of which have been initially highly unpopular – have been brought about by parties willing to look beyond the next opinion poll and line up in solidarity behind their leader.
Many of Tony Abbott’s policies have been wildly unpopular and some just outright ridiculous – hello Sir Duke Prince Philip – but surely his views on industrial relations, university and health reforms don’t come as a surprise to his own party?
The problem is that these same party members were hoping Mr Abbott could break the mould and reflect the views of the broader Australian community rather than that of the ingrained party machine.
Just as Labor failed miserably to understand the depth of the problems during its term, it may be also too late for this government.
Going beyond this latest farce, however, the real solution is in bringing back representation closer to everyday members of the community who recognise right and wrong and who will stand more readily behind a leader based upon policy, rather than just changing winds of power.
andrew.eales@fairfaxmedia.com.au