Stationed upstairs in the City Oval Hotel, the few Liberal Party faithful who’d arrived early were audibly gasping as results from across the state rolled in. While many were unable – or unwilling – to yet reflect on what went so horribly wrong, some were firmly looking to the future. 

When it comes to Wendouree, Liberal’s Amy Johnson has received only 39.85 per cent of the vote, after preferences, while new Labor candidate Juliana Addison sits at just over 60 per cent. 

Buninyong Labor candidate Michaela Settle is ahead on two party preferred by 62.17 per cent, which moves the marginal seat into ‘safe’ territory. In 2014, former Labor MP Geoff Howard held Buninyong with 56.39 per cent of the vote. 

Even Ballarat’s elder statesman of Liberal politics, Western Victoria MP Joshua Morris, could potentially lose his place in parliament.

Ballarat Liberal Party stalwart Helen Bath – who ran for the Ballarat Province seat in 1999 and again in 2002 – said Saturday’s result was an “absolutely devastating loss”. 

“A lot of issues were tried to fight locally, like the Ballarat Station redevelopment, were just ignored,” she said. 

“There are a number of issues that are state-wide that have not resonated, like the CFA ... As brutal as it can be, it’s going to be really interesting to try and analyse why.”

Around Ballarat’s initially somber Liberal HQ, later packed primarily with family and friends of the beleaguered candidates, the swing against the Liberal Party was likened to the 2002 election. That year, Labor Premier Steve Bracks picked up an additional 20 seats to be returned to a second turn of government.

The seat of Ripon, which takes some of Ballarat’s western suburbs like Lucas, is a solitary point of remaining intrigue.

Current Liberal MP Louise Staley is only 80 votes ahead of Labor hopeful Sarah De Santis on first preferences. When it comes to two party preferred, De Santis now sits ahead after preference counts, holding the lead at only 50.1 per cent. 

Ripon was an electorate the Liberal Party won at the 2014 election by only 0.8 per cent, picked up from retiring Labor member Joe Helper. 

While results filtered through on Saturday night, Wendouree candidate Amy Johnson was chalking her loss up to the broader electoral trend against her party. 

"There's obviously been a swing against the Liberal Party across the state,” Ms Johnson said. 

"I hope Liberal Party voters are happy with the campaign we ran ... we've seen a very significant number of commitments made in Ballarat this election, and I feel that the hard work I did is part of the reason that this seat became such a focal point for the election."

Former Ballarat West MP Paul Jenkins told The Courier he was “surprised” by the strength of the swing across the state. 

Mr Jenkins was elected in 1992 when Jeff Kennett’s Liberal-National coalition picked up 20 seats across the state, and retired in 1999. 

“The general electorate is only looking for the things that benefit themselves, and if there’s a policy which suits them, they go for that,” Mr Jenkins said, while considering why controversies like the red shirts rort hadn’t cut through. 

“There were a number of policies Labor come out with that were purely attractive to the voter. 

“Next time if the Liberals offer something better, they’ll go that way. But what does concern me is that [the Labor Party] is now going to double the debt.”

Buninyong candidate Andrew Kilmartin said while “at the start of the year, everyone thought these were safe Labor seats”, the “pressure” from the Liberal Party’s Ballarat campaign made it feel more marginal. 

“It convinced them they were in trouble here, any they started spending a lot,” he said. 

“We’ve done the groundwork here. It was an unorthodox campaign, we were pretty happy with how it was going, but sometimes you just can’t compete with the statewide swings.”

Mr Kilmartin noted he’d “definitely” put his hand up to run in a future Ballarat seat for the Liberal Party. 

OUR INTERVIEW WITH ANDREW KILMARTIN HERE

Ms Bath said she had seen a marked change in the electorate over the last ten years, with many voters now eschewing How To Vote material.

“Pre-polling was very tough … what is interesting is the way the whole process is changing,” she said. 

“The people that just walk past everyone and don’t take anything, there was a really high percentage of those. 

“They’ve made their decision or they have what they want on their phones. Years ago when someone came [without taking anything], often you would go in as a scrutineer at a later date and there would be all sorts of things written on the card.

“Now it’s changed … from a personal point of view, I find it very hard that so many people are disengaged … [for the Liberals] It’s going to be about asking what do people really want? Do they really understand the process?”

Ballarat-based Western Region MP Joshua Morris said while the results were “not in their favour”, he would continue to support Matthew Guy as Liberal Party leader. 

While he maintained that law and order, a foundation stone of the campaign, was still one of the “significant” issues for Ballarat, there are “many things” the Liberal Party are going to have look at in the days ahead. 

“What we’ve seen from polling is that it is increasingly unreliable. Nick Xenophon would have been the Premier of South Australia … had we have listened to tradition polling. 

“There are many lessons to be taken from [the result].”

OUR INTERVIEW WITH JOSHUA MORRIS HERE

But Jenkins said there “is always hope” when it comes to the Liberal Party’s future in Ballarat and beyond. 

“As histories happen, in 1992 we decimated Labor, and at this stage they’ve given us a thumping [this year],” he said.  

“That’s the way the pendulum swings.

“But I have no doubt the Liberal Party will recover from this … and it will happen in my time too.”