THE Bureau of Meteorology says Victoria should experience a warmer and dryer summer than normal, which comes on the back of the fifth driest spring ever recorded.
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Despite what looms as the coldest ever start to December in history this weekend, the long range forecast for the next three months suggests generally clear conditions.
Mostly westerly winds might see temperature slightly below or just on average in the far south of the state, but the further north you go, the warmer the weather will be.
Bureau of Meteorology head of long-range forecasts Dr Andrew Watkins said the outlook was being influenced by one of Australia's main climate drivers.
"The key culprit for our current and expected conditions is one of the strongest positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events on record," Dr Watkins said.
"A positive IOD means we have cooler than average water pooling off Indonesia, and this means we see less rain-bearing weather systems, and warmer than average temperatures for large parts of the country.
"The positive IOD means we're also expecting a delayed onset for the northern monsoon, one of the key drivers for tropical rainfall during the summer months.
"At this stage we're expecting the onset of the northern monsoon by mid-summer, which should see the odds for closer to average rainfall increasing from January and into February."
Spring, which officially draws to a close on Saturday looks set to be the fifth driest on record.
Dr Watkins said some areas of the state experienced record high spring temperatures, with many areas hitting 40 degrees on November 21.
He added that due to the mostly clear condition cool nights were common, and the state's spring mean minimum temperature is on track to be the lowest since 2003.
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