ACUTE operations chief Ben Kelly is confident Ballarat Health Services has a strong grasp of how coronavirus is impacting the city and how it was likely to continue playing out, even with testing criteria expanded.
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Mr Kelly could not say for certain there had been no community transmissions and Victoria's Health Department would not shed further light on Ballarat's cases.
But, Ballarat's confirmed COVID-19 cases remained steady at 10 on Friday, with no new infections and only two extra this week. This means Ballarat cases are only doubling about every seven days instead of every four days.
Victoria has a reported 1,085 coronavirus cases, up 49 from Thursday, and including 205 people in regional Victoria. Geelong has more than 50 cases. There are 62 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Victoria that may have been acquired through community transmission.
Mr Kelly said this flattening curve was undoubtedly largely due to the community's work in self-isolating. In turn, this helped BHS with extra time and confidence to prepare for a potential spike in numbers.
The ABC is reporting unreleased government modelling predicts Ballarat Health Services could receive 70 to 110 intensive care unit admissions per day at the peak of the crisis with 13 beds and staff for seven patients. Nearby, Wimmera Base Hospital is tipped to receive 10 to 30 ICU patients with five beds and three nurses to care for patients on ventilators.
Mr Kelly said modelling was useful to help hospitals work through a projected increase in demand on services but measures were in place to flatten the curve. These looked to be working.
A key part of planning was also to support the region's smaller hospitals in sharing staff when clinically required and supplies. BHS was already working closely with St John of God Hospital Ballarat, Ballarat Community Health and general practitioners across the city.
"We continue to put different pieces in place and we're constantly refining this. We have the luxury of making the most the time we have at the moment," Mr Kelly said.
"...We're really please with the support we've had from the community - we're in partnership with each other," Mr Kelly said. "If we all adhere to the advice from the premier, it helps us be confident we can meet the need."
Prime Minister Scott Morrison said authorities had been working on the modelling of expected infections in Australia and would release the work on Tuesday. Mr Morrison said the coronvirus infection rate was tracking in a way that would not overrun the country's health system.
BHS moved its fever clinic to the public dental site in Sebastopol this week. Mr Kelly said the move allowed for the capacity to expand testing and response to cases, particularly after the state government expanded testing criteria on Thursday.
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