BALLARAT can expect more coronavirus cases to emerge across the city based on the expanded testing numbers and past ratios of Victorian and nationwide results.
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This comes as Ballarat Health Services confirmed one new COVID-19 case for the city on Wednesday in the wake of a fortnight-long screening blitz. It was the first new positive case in Ballarat for six weeks.
But ratios of positive cases per population indicate, according to calculations by The Courier, Ballarat has about half the Victorian average of one positive case for every 200 tests done.
Even so, on this basis we could expect about 12 more cases from the more 5000 tests across the city in the past two weeks. The figure is based on national and state averages from the federal and state governments COVID-19 data to date.
A test result lag has left thousands of Ballarat residents in limbo with many waiting about a week to learn whether they were positive for the virus. Those who were tested with potential symptoms have been told to isolate until they learn otherwise.
The Courier has contacted the Victorian health department for clarification on testing results.
A spokesperson for BHS, which led the Ballarat testing blitz, said the health service was aware some swabs from the two-week blitz were still being processed. The 5000-strong community screening response created a large increase in test volume for the city's test clinics, which included a pop-up site at the Morshead Park soccer stadium for people without any symptoms across six days last week.
BHS made clear anyone with even the mildest symptoms should go to be tested at the Lucas fever clinic and self-isolate as a precaution until they get their results.
Victoria's chief health officer Brett Sutton said we would continue to have outbreaks of the virus.
He said modelling needed to further understand the community transmission cases that continued to occur. Victoria would also continue testing to best monitor the virus' spread in the state.
"As you know it only takes one case and in a particularly vulnerable setting, significant transmission occurs," Professor Sutton said on Tuesday.
"The outbreak response mechanisms will be an ongoing need and they are a really important capability for us to have."
BHS confirmed it was working with the health department to establish testing for teachers and school staff, who show no symptoms, ahead of the return to on-site classroom teaching. BHS will also provide mobile testing for frontline workplaces.
When looking at the data, the number of positive COVID-19 cases in Australia is not a true indication of the virus' grip. Australia-wide almost three people in 10,000 have contracted coronavirus compared to almost one person per 100 people, going by test totals. In Victoria, the population average is two positive people per 10,000 people compared to one in every 200 people tested.
Professor Sutton said what Victorian testing had uncovered was low levels of community transmission but this was still vital information to guide future decisions on testing and risk.
It's clear that we have discovered new cases that would otherwise have been unknown to us. And every case discovered is an opportunity to end a chain of transmission.
- Brett Sutton, Victoria's chief health officer
"It's clear that we have discovered new cases that would otherwise have been unknown to us. And every case discovered is an opportunity to end a chain of transmission," Professor Sutton said.
"Every case discovered is an opportunity to have a better understanding of where transmission is occurring."
Victoria's health department would not confirm details about the latest COVID-19 case in Ballarat due to privacy.
BHS issued a statement early Wednesday afternoon to confirm the person had not needed hospital care and was being cared for in the community. The health service was working with the health department on tracing people who had come into close contact with the person.
COVID-19 testing in Ballarat is available in the UFS-led clinic at Lucas Community Centre by appointment on 4311 1571.
Anyone tested without symptoms last week need not self-isolate while waiting for results.
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