They are likely to raise queries over whether attempts to encourage more people and different accommodation types into the centre of the city are working as they should.

There are also likely to be further questions on the way 'infill' - construction within established residential areas - is categorised. Councillors were recently told this was tracking on target. However, building approvals can be broken down into defined statistical areas and can be taken as an accurate indication of where residential construction is taking place.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), more than the 71 per cent of building approvals so far this financial year have been for new homes in the outer suburban areas of Alfredton and Delacombe.

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The same figures suggest new dwellings within the CBD stand at a fraction of that. In the past three years, the highest annual proportion of new homes approved in the centre of town was six per cent of the total. Last financial year, there were 30 new homes approved in the city's centre as defined by the ABS - or 2.5 per cent of the total.

The analysis of recent growth is the clearest measure yet of attempts to balance fringe development equally with more homes in existing areas.

The figures have raised concerns over the availability of land, the pace of growth and whether the city's infrastructure can keep up - all of which have been discussed at recent council meetings.

One well known planning academic, Professor Michael Buxton, has suggested halting the release of further growth areas in Ballarat to encourage more homes to be built in the CBD - an approach one developer said would stifle demand, and make housing less affordable.

Meanwhile, Professor Bridget Aitchison, who chairs the Committee for Ballarat's Liveability Project Team, said more work needed to be done to make the centre a more appealing place to live.

The Ballarat Strategy 2040, a document published in 2015 as a blueprint for managing long-term population growth, said the council would "implement planning mechanisms to enable the housing market to trend towards 50 per cent infill / 50 per cent greenfield for new housing... between 2020 and 2040."

One key advantage of infill is that transport, social and commercial infrastructure is already in place.

At a discussion in the final meeting of the previous council about future greenfield development, councillors were informed infill development was on target.

The director of growth and development, Natalie Robertson, said to councillors: "We are confident it is 50/50 [greenfield/ infill split]".

After the The Courier queried how infill was categorised, a City of Ballarat spokesperson defined it as areas outside of the urban growth zones. "'Infill' would refer to areas considered residential by [the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning], including low density residential zone, township zone, neighbourhood residential zones, general residential zone, residential growth zones or mixed use zones."

Anywhere not within the Ballarat West Urban Growth Zone would be classed as infill, including new estates in rapidly expanding areas such as Brown Hill and Miners Rest for example.

The Ballarat strategy document said 40 per cent of housing was "being developed in infill locations in Ballarat, with 60 per cent in greenfield", a statistic it said was more akin to rates in much larger cities.

It also acknowledged development was concentrated in outer suburbs, was usually detached houses "often occurring on larger sites missed by previous waves of development".

However, a City of Ballarat statement on Friday seemed to use another benchmark, suggesting infill rates were at 84 per cent in 2015, and that the five-year average stood at 61.66 per cent (see below).

It is a moot point, perhaps: building approvals data shows where growth is happening, regardless of how it is defined.

The Courier reported this week that the rate of building work in the existing growth areas has accelerated to its fastest ever.

In September, there were 198 building approvals for new homes across the city, more than there have ever been in a month before.

In fact, approvals from the first three months of the financial year were up 88 per cent when compared to the same time in 2019.

The rate of growth has been attributed in part to the Federal Government's HomeBuilder stimulus, which offers a grant of $25,000 to people to build, as long as the first slab is laid within six months of a contract being signed.

The measure was designed to stimulate the construction industry following the economic damages caused by the COVID-19 crisis.

Last week, the government announced it would continue the HomeBuilder scheme until the end of March next year, reducing the grant to $15,000 but raising the cap on maximum property values will rise from $750,000 to $850,000.

Developers and builders expect more demand to be triggered as a result.

The grants are just one factor in pushing urban boundaries. Professor Aitchison told The Courier there was more incentive to build than buy. She described HomeBuilder as just one of several financial incentives for construction work in the fringe areas - and said she had herself decided to build a home in the western growth zone.

However, she expressed concerns about how expansion was taking place. "When they did bring out that second $25,000, [for HomeBuilder] the queue to build got enormous," she said. "The infrastructure isn't keeping up. You can see from the traffic build-up from LaTrobe Street and Wiltshire lane, you can see from the lack of amenities.

"Expansion isn't bad, as long as the infrastructure keeps pace and keeps ahead."

Development has not escaped the CBD altogether: Marvella Heights in Bakery Hill and the Nightingale apartments are two examples of recent developments that have been given the green light in more central areas.

A City of Ballarat spokesperson said the proportion of new developments in greenfield areas vs infill would "fluctuate markedly over time" and that short-term figures were "just one part of the picture."

They said the rapid growth was a result of strategic planning decisions taken a decade ago in planning for Ballarat West.

Various projects within the city that could influence future patterns of growth were highlighted. The statement said "significant" CBD housing projects could be part of the regeneration of Bakery Hill and the renewal of Latrobe Street Saleyards precinct, while mixed use developments around Wendouree Station and the south side of Ballarat Station could also have an effect.

"Collectively these precincts have the potential for new markets in infill housing to develop, which over the medium to long term will shift that pattern of growth and best support the liveability of Ballarat.

"In terms of putting those planning changes in place to give market confidence, they are progressing well."

However, Professor Michael Buxton, Emeritus Professor Environment and Planning at RMIT University, cast doubt on whether that alone would be enough.

A former councillor and mayor himself (in a different municipal area of Victoria), he said: "Ballarat is getting a reputation for not achieving higher quality housing outcomes on the fringes of the city.

"They should be really doing what Bendigo moved towards doing some years ago - trying to establish an urban growth boundary around the city, and to look for infill options with diverse housing styles within the city itself.

"It will take off if they stop developers building the easy way. The easy way is for developers to get land rezoned on the fringes of town and roll out their traditional model.

"It's much harder to actually have a look at the city itself, identify the possible sites, develop housing models for those sites, then start to facilitate development.

"While they make it easier to just rezone land on the fringe, developers will take the easy way. As soon as they can't do that, they will reluctantly have to go and build within the city itself. It's harder. They always threaten to go elsewhere. They don't."

That view is unlikely to meet much approval from developers.

When The Courier mentioned the idea of limiting growth areas with Nick Grylewicz of Integra last week, he said such a move was likely to stifle growth and raise prices.

He acknowledged the issue of CBD development was a "longstanding challenge" for planners, with accessibility, red tape and planning approvals all potential obstacles for building homes in more central areas.

"I think council is doing a pretty good job with its growth planning," he said. "What's really important is the early provision of infrastructure."

He said areas like Lucas and Delacombe were examples of long-term planning, pointing to shopping precincts developed in advance of the arrival of houses.

Already in-depth planning is taking place for new growth areas with fragmented land ownership placing the brakes on big new developments in the urban growth zone.

A further growth zone to the west of the existing one, as well as an area to the north of the Western Freeway around Mount Rowan, are already earmarked, and may be rezoned in the next few years.

For Professor Aitchison, if revitalisation in the CBD takes place, the development will follow.

The ABS data, she believes, shows "strategies being used to attract infill are failing or aren't being supported."

She said the view the housing market would make its own decisions was "a very capitalistic approach".

"Council also has the responsibility to guide that a little bit," she said. "It has the responsibility to act in Ballarat's best interest."

"My hope is that with council now operating with new directors and a new council term, they will start paying attention to genuine community consultation."

One of her ideas to help transform the CBD is to establish an arts, culture and entertainment precinct around Bridge Mall.

"You need to breathe a sense of life, variety and safety before you attract residents to the city," she said.

"You need to preserve key heritage areas of course, but we need to make planning permits easier. We also need a variety of accommodation and not make it so hard to create that variety."

Ballarat Strategy 2040

New Greenfield areas (September 16, 2020 council meeting broadcast)

The long-term goal for 50:50 split of infill vs greenfield development was adopted as part of Ballarat Strategy in 2015. The intent of that is clear - refer Initiative 3.1 (p127):

"City of Ballarat will implement planning mechanisms to enable the housing market to trend towards 50% infill / 50% greenfield for new housing in Ballarat between 2020 and 2040.

Ultimately, the housing market will make its own decisions regarding where and how property buyers want to live, however, a clear Council commitment to enable greater infill should give confidence to the development industry that appropriate developments, which enable more infill and inner city living, will be supported."

This is a long-term shift which guides our work program. Our priority land use projects include significant new CBD housing as part of the Bakery Hill Urban Renewal Plan (adopted 2019), renewal of Latrobe Street Saleyards precinct (potential for significant housing as part of the wider precinct - under development), giving certainty for communities on acceptable levels of infill (new Housing Strategy - under development), encouraging mixed use developments around key transport interchanges (Wendouree Station Master Plan - adopted) and Ballarat Station Precinct - South side masterplan - under development).

Collectively these precincts have the potential for new markets in infill housing to develop, which over the medium to long term will shift that pattern of growth and best support the liveability of Ballarat. In terms of putting those planning changes in place to give market confidence, they are progressing well.

The specific proportion of new developments in greenfield areas vs infill will fluctuate markedly over time, and taking a short-term view is just one part of the picture.

The accelerated growth in greenfield areas is a result of strategic planning taken up to a decade ago in planning for Ballarat West. The current projects will influence the future patterns of growth.

The method we use to monitor growth is occupancy permits issued on zoned land. 'Greenfield' referring to land zoned Urban Growth Zone. 'Infill' referring to areas considered residential by DELWP - zoned Low Density Residential Zone, Township Zone, Neighbourhood Residential Zone, General Residential Zone, Residential Growth Zone or Mixed Use Zone.

Using these definitions, the breakdown is as follows:

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