The proposed new state electorate boundaries could be a big win for Labor in Ballarat according to one of the country's leading election analysts.
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ABC chief elections analyst Antony Green said the proposed boundaries could allow Labor to retain two safe seats, in Eureka and Buninyong, while also flipping Ripon from a marginal Liberal seat to marginal Labor.
Mr Green said the proposed changes had been caused by growth in areas between Melbourne and Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong.
"What you're seeing is everything in the western districts has drifted towards Ballarat and Geelong," he said.
Explore the map of the proposed changes here:
Under proposed new boundaries released by Victoria's Electoral Boundaries Commission on Wednesday, the electorate of Wendouree could be abolished and replaced by the new electorate of Eureka which would take in the centre of Ballarat.
All residents in Alfredton and many in Wendouree could be no longer be voting in the new seat, to instead be voting in Ripon.
The redistribution proposes moving the electorate's western boundary east to Gillies Street, with the western portion of Wendouree, Lake Gardens and Alfredton to now be in Ripon.
Ripon also potentially gains the localities of Mount Rowan, Invermay and Nerrina as the boundary between Ripon and the proposed Eureka electorate shifts south to the Western Freeway.
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While losing area in the west and north of Ballarat, Eureka is set to gain the city's southern suburbs including the eponymous suburb of Eureka, as well as Redan, Sebastopol and Bonshaw, much of which was previously part of the Buninyong electorate.
According to Mr Green, the proposed changes could 'wipe out' the Liberals' margin in Ripon and give Labor a 2.3 per cent margin.
With Labor winning Wendouree by 10.3 per cent, the margin in the new Eureka seat is estimated to increase to 13.4 per cent.
Meanwhile, with Buninyong losing the south of Ballarat and gaining additional rural areas and Bacchus Marsh, Labor's margin is estimated to fall from 12.2 per cent to 7.3 per cent.
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"They've had two very safe seats and a marginal Liberal seat, they've now got two safe seats and a marginal Labor seat," Mr Green said.
The electorate boundaries are being redrawn for both houses to give each seat equal representation in state parliament.
Submissions are being invited on the new boundaries until Friday, July 30 before the final boundaries are released in October.
Member for Wendouree Juliana Addison, whose electorate could be abolished and replaced by Eureka, said she was committed to representing her community in the next election.
"It is an honour and a privilege every day to work really hard for my community so until the state election in November 2022, I'm very focused on representing the community I was elected to represent. At this stage, draft boundaries don't change anything for me," she said.
"I'm very committed to representing my community for this election cycle and beyond, but what that looks like, until the final boundaries come out, is a hypothetical."
Member for Buninyong Michaela Settle also committed to representing residents of a potentially redistributed electorate.
"I look forward to continuing to represent our local community no matter what the boundaries are," she said.
Member for Ripon Louise Staley did not respond to requests for comment.
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