Epidemiologist Catherine Bennett says there's little to fear in the rise of regional COVID cases

Since the pandemic began in early 2020, the number of cases in regional Victoria has only been a small fraction of the state's total but over the past few weeks that jumped significantly.

As of Monday, 21 per cent of the state's new COVID-19 cases were in regional areas compared to just 7 per cent about two weeks ago.

Professor Bennett, who is chair of epidemiology at Deakin University, said the rise was a reflection of increased movement and less compliance to the most recent lockdown restrictions and expects the increase to slow.

"We are seeing cases in regional Victoria and still some hot-spots around Mildura-Swan Hill, Albury-Wodonga, Latrobe, Baw Baw and Geeling which have shot up while Melbourne has come down," she said.

"Regional Victoria's population is about a quarter of the state's population, and now with 21 per cent of cases it means the infection rate per-capita is not that different in metropolitan Melbourne to regional Victoria."

She said learning to live with the virus risk meant infection rates would eventually equalise to a similar ratio per-capita regardless of where in the state you live.

"Regional Victorians don't have to fear opening up, they don't have to fear Melbourne people coming up, many from suburbs that haven't seen a case," she said.

"I think it will just mean it's less predictable where cases are - they're not necessarily in a hot-spot suburb or outbreak setting, but wherever you go you could come across a case."

On Sunday the state recorded 1471 new COVID cases with the seven day rolling average, which peaked at just under 2000 a day in recent weeks, now sitting at 1498.

"Everywhere in regional Victoria has an incredible first-dose vaccination rate, there isn't anywhere with a rate below 90 per cent, and even if we see local cases or if they haven't yet had a second dose or are within that first couple of weeks of having a jab they are going to hospital a lot less."

She said there would still be outbreaks, but particularly in regional areas they would be easier to control and high vaccination rates would prevent many from becoming sick enough to need hospital care.

Regional health services were concerned that increasing case numbers could see them over-run with COVID patients, with some including Ballarat Health Services, part of a network to take COVID patients from metropolitan areas if needed.

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On Sunday there were 699 people in Victorian hospitals with COVID and 136 in intensive care of whom 86 were on a ventilator - well below the seven day average for hospitalisations at 742.

Professor Bennett said modelling had predicted up to four times more people would be hospitalised than had eventuated.

"People should enjoy catching up with family and friends, but stay vigilant about symptoms, testing and isolating," she said.

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