A leading epidemiologist has warned of an imminent and potentially catastrophic surge in coronavirus cases in Victoria over the festive season, as Omicron cases begin to climb.
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Coronavirus cases in Ballarat have been steadily rising in recent days, with ten new cases recorded yesterday, bringing the region's total active cases to 80.
James Trauer, head of epidemiological modelling at the Monash University School of Public Health, said the determination to relax restrictions in the face of the most contagious strain yet risked a public health "disaster" come January.
"Omicron is exploding pretty quickly," Associate Professor Trauer said. "It's going to be major problem for us that will inevitably mean the return of severe restrictions if we don't take sensible actions now."
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Professor Trauer said neither the federal nor the state governments were being transparent about the need to revise the easing of restrictions, the timing of which was based on the Doherty Institute's August modelling of the Delta variant and low community transmission.
"There's been a genuine change to the pandemic [with Omicron], and while there is a lot of political capital in reducing restrictions, now is not a good time to be doing that," he said.
"The government's approach right now is a bit like turning a zeppelin around whereas we need a really nimble response."
The World Health Organisation has observed Omicron infections to be doubling every one and half to three days in countries with community transmission, including in places with high vaccination coverage.
Meanwhile, emerging data suggests the Omicron strain is not, contrary to early reports, more benign than Delta. The most recent data also shows the protection afforded by two doses of either AstraZeneca or Pfizer to be greatly reduced by Omicron, with a booster shot required to restore immunity to over 70 per cent.
But as Victorians wrestle this week with whether to limit Christmas and New Year gatherings, Professor Trauer said adhering to basic preventative tools - like booster shots, masks, week-to-week rapid antigen testing and limiting social movement, would slow the rate of transmission and, in turn, greatly reduce the prospect of a return to lockdowns.
"We know there's a lot of fatigue out there with basic restrictions," he said. "Our modelling shows mask wearing is having a lesser effect than it did last year because people aren't wearing them as much."
"But we need to start scaling up our efforts to get some kind of control and be mentally prepared to do more.
"It will be disaster if we wait until we've got 10,000 cases a day and then try to put everything in place."
Professsor Trauer said it was particularly important to ensure vulnerable and elderly people received a booster shot, if eligible, and that members of the community get into the habit of regular rapid antigen testing.
"Making rapid antigen tests a week-to-week behaviour - especially if you're about to visit an elderly relative as you might at Christmas or go to a crowded place - is one way of ensuring you're not infectious," he said.
Emergency doctor and City of Ballarat councillor Mark Harris said the Omicron variant, so far as Christmas spoilers were concerned, had "no modern equal".
"It's come at a time when our patience is thin and our capacity to fight is under stress," Dr Harris said.
Consistent with recent data, Dr Harris said "unique to this variant's management, a booster shot is vital."
He said the community needed to ensure understandable fatigue with covid-restrictions did not stand in the way of getting the pandemic back under control.
"Our resolve can't waive now, as much as fatigue with restrictions dominates our thoughts."
In contrast to previous strains, data suggest cold-like symptoms - such as cough, fatigue, congestion or running nose - are more common among those infected with Omicron. Anyone with those symptoms should immediately get tested.
The Ballarat Health Services' testing site on Creswick Road will be open on Christmas Day from 9am to 12pm and operate with normal hours on all other public holidays.
Redan's drive-through testing will also remain open for screening, with limited hours on Christmas and New Year's days.
Meanwhile, the UFS commonwealth funded vaccination clinic will be closed on the Christmas Day and Boxing Day public holidays, reopening on Wednesday. The BHS community vaccination hub at The Mercure will also close from Christmas Eve until January 4. Anyone seeking a booster in this period is encouraged to try a pharmacy or GP clinic.
Thirteen new Omicron cases were discovered in Victoria yesterday, bringing the total number of known Omicron cases in the state to 37.
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