Then a week later another poll shows that 70 per cent of Victorians approve of the way the state government has handled the coronavirus pandemic.

Then days later another poll suggests Labor will win the next state election if it were held today.

We all know what happened in the USA in 2016 when Hilary Clinton was supposed to sweep into power.

Have you ever been confused about how polls are shaped and how accurate they really are? How do the pollsters determine how an election might go?

Former deputy campaign director for Labor Victoria and now director at political consultancy RedBridge Group Kosmos Samaras said the key to an accurate poll lays in the sample size.

"If you are going to poll a seat, anything short of 1000 is risky and potentially exposes you to significant short comings," Mr Samaras said.

"We do them via robo's such as automated calls where you press one or press two. But also live interviews, where you're talking directly to a person on the phone.

"The latter would be used if you're connecting to lower socio-economic backgrounds or dealing with language issues."

People polled are either those who have participated in polls in the past, or have had their details accessed from electoral rolls, which can be legally attained by political parties or polling companies.

A political party will pay for a poll if it deems it could be helpful. Chances are if they poll result doesn't look good, it won't be released publicly.

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It can cost anywhere from $5000 to upwards of $20,000 for each poll. Companies like RedBridge, and Roy Morgan will also pay for their own polling away from the political sphere.

A recent poll conducted by the Victorian Liberal Party suggested that five Victorian-based seats could see a swing against the state government by more than 14 per cent if the election were held today.

The MediaReach poll, of more than 3000 voters were surveyed, were held in the marginal Labor seats of Bayswater, Hawthorn, Mount Waverley, South Barwon and Monbulk.

However each poll conducted had only between 523 and 697 voters canvassed.

Just this week, a Roy Morgan SMS survey on Victorian voting intentions showed support for the ALP is now at 51.5 per cent compared to the LNP on 48.5 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. This poll was conducted with 1147 voters.

It reveals a 5.8 per cent reduction for the government and same gain for the opposition since the 2018 Victorian State Election, but shows the government would still be returned for a third term if the election was held today.

Roy Morgan chief executive officer Michele Levine said the second wave of COVID-19 in Victoria has led to a tightening between the two major parties with the ALP on 51.5 per cent only narrowly ahead of the LNP on 48.5 per cent on a two-party preferred basis in mid-September.

"The next two years presents a huge test for the ALP to rebuild it's credibility after the devastating impact of the second wave of COVID-19 following mis-steps in the Victorian hotel quarantine program for returned travellers and inadequate contact tracing and testing in Victoria," Ms Levine said.

Mr Samaras said the key was understanding the demographic and knowing why a seat like Hawthorn - so long a Liberal stronghold - changed to Labor at the last election.

"Hawthorn is a great example of a changing demographic," he said.

"You have to understand, the people who would have voted for Jeff Kennett in 1992, were all born before 1972. That's not that demographic now.

"Over the past 20 years, Victoria more than any other state has changed demographics. The majority of people under the age of 40 have a tertiary qualification, versus 37 per cent of the entire population of Victoria."

Mr Samaras said regional cities like Ballarat and Bendigo were equally an example of that.

"Everyone knows my background within Labor, and I know that in the mid 90s, it was a very hard task for Labor to win in Ballarat," he said.

"Ballarat and Bendigo are now regional cities that have significant levels of public servants working there. They are no longer agriculture epicentres. They are effectively mini-versions of Melbourne."

Mr Samaras also outlined that young people, who were not generally engaged in the political spectrum, were particularly difficult to canvas, pointing to polling in inner-Melbourne city seats which have pointed to Labor victories in recent years, yet have been routinely won by Greens candidates.

Objectively, Mr Samaras has some thoughts on coming elections based on demographics and news isn't good for Labor federally due to the popularity of Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

He points to a recent poll conducted in the seat of Hunter, north of Sydney, which suggests Labor's Joel Fitzgibbon could lose his seat he has held since 1996 if a Liberal candidate stood against him. Traditionally, the National Party has contested the seat without a Liberal nominee.

"I think the Liberals will win the next federal election," he said. "The federal government is seen around the country as being important on issues of national security and economics, whereas in Victoria people like a government that's good on schools, health, roads, infrastructure.

"Melbourne is like Massachusetts, Sydney is the mid-west of the USA, parts of Queensland are like Alabama and Western Australia is like Texas.

"I think Annastacia Palaszczuk will probably win Queensland, but a caveat to that is Queensland is really hard Yakka for Labor. There's a huge third party vote with One Nation which skews conservative. Also we don't know what Clive Palmer is going to do. The same issues the Liberals face in Victoria, Labor faces in Queensland."

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