Coronavirus in Ballarat: testing sites closed, hospital rates key to Omicron's COVID surge

While the true number of COVID infections in the community is likely far higher than the record 14,020 across Victoria and 99 in Ballarat reported on Tuesday, the milder symptoms of the now-dominant Omicron variant has seen fewer patients end up in intensive care units.

COVID is expected to continue its wave across the state but the true number of infections is unlikely to be known because of difficulties with the state's testing system.

There were no drive through testing sites operating in Ballarat on Tuesday, with the BHS Creswick Road facility closed because of staffing issues and implementation of a new triage system, and the 4Cyte testing station in Redan closed because of a backlog of tests to be processed in the company's labs.

Deakin University epidemiologist Professor Catherine Bennett said the reduced requirements and long waits for PCR testing, and difficulties accessing rapid antigen tests meant the daily reported case numbers were much less reliable.

Delays in processing test results also meant the daily results were "historical" rather than an accurate snapshot.

"Case numbers give a minimum number. It might be four days ago they got tested, and they probably had symptoms before testing so the actual infection might have started a week ago," she said.

"The reality is we need to look at hospitalisation numbers because that's where the impact is ... in the healthcare system.

"At the end of the day, there are fewer people in ICU than we had two or three weeks ago. It was over 135 at the start of December but people were not looking at that because case numbers were under control."

Just two weeks ago when there were 13,355 active cases and 1245 new cases a day in Victoria, 392 COVID patients were in hospital including 116 people in ICU, 43 of whom were on ventilators.

Fast forward to this week with Omicron elbowing out Delta as the dominant strain, there are fewer in the ICU and on ventilators despite there being more than 11 times as many new daily cases and three and a half times more active cases.

On Monday there were 108 COVID patients in the ICU and 24 on ventilators out of 516 patients in hospital even with 14,020 new and 48,297 active cases.

Professor Bennett said even in New South Wales where case numbers have been more than 10,000 a day for the past seven days, and hit a record 23,131 new cases on Tuesday, their ICU numbers are still lower than ours.

"We just need to keep an eye on hospitals who are stretched. They are dealing with not just cases admitted to the COVID ward, but because COVID is so widespread in the community there will be people bringing COVID in to hospital unknowingly on other wards ... and staff exposed in the community."

One in four tests reported in Tuesday's figures came back positive.

Victoria's COVID response commander Jeroen Weimar urged all Victorians to follow public health guidelines, wear masks, wash hands, social distance and isolate if symptomatic, even if they cannot be tested, to try to rein in the rampant COVID transmission.

"We expect there to be far more positive cases out in the community with people not coming forward to get tested or can't get tested in a way that's satisfactory to them," he said.

"Our message to everyone out there is Omicron is sweeping through our community now in a way we have not seen over last two years. It's not moving like Delta, like Alpha and like the original strains. This is a very different beast, moving very quickly.

"At the moment the vast majority of people are reporting very mild symptoms but the sheer number of cases will put increased pressure on the hospital system in weeks to come," he warned.

Mr Weimar urged anyone considering going for a PCR test to only go if symptomatic or if they have returned a positive rapid antigen test. People required to use a Rapid Antigen Tests, such as asymptomatic household contacts, but who cannot access a RAT can also present for a PCR test.

"We do not have the bandwidth, we do not have the discretion to be offering travel tests or various other tests for people to reassure themselves that they're still okay. That is what the rapid antigen test system is now for," he said.

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The Victorian Government has ordered 34 million Rapid Antigen Tests to be delivered by the end of January.

Mr Weimar said anyone who fit the criteria for a PCR test but could not access one should keep trying, count the isolation days from their rapid test result (if available), and contact their GP if concerned about symptoms.

Professor Bennett also urged Victorians to get their booster shots as soon as possible.

"We've had some really good information from the UK and protection from serious illness, even with Omicron," she said. "If you are (double) vaccinated you have literally half the risk of unvaccinated people of ending up in hospital but as soon as you get the booster (he protection) is back up to 88 per cent," she said.

"You are less likely to get a symptomatic infection let alone serious illness, and you are also not as likely to pass it on."

Ballarat was left without drive through COVID testing for most of Tuesday after the sudden closure of the BHS Creswick Road testing site and the ongoing closure of the 4Cyte testing station in Redan.

Staffing issues and implementation of a new triage system at the Creswick Road testing site saw the gates closed despite a large queue of cars which began to line up as early as 6am.

"Our Creswick Road testing clinic is experiencing high demand, and are not taking any further vehicles while we clear the current backlog and implement a new triage system," BHS said in a statement.

The Creswick Road testing site will only test people who are household contacts of an already confirmed positive case, or who are symptomatic.

"Until further notice, if you test positive with a RAT (rapid antigen test), you are considered COVID positive. Please isolate at home," they advised.

The 4Cyte drive through at Redan has been closed for several days with Victoria's COVID response commander Jeroen Weimar confirming that 4Cyte, Australian Clinical Laboratories, Melbourne Pathology and Dorevitch had suspended testing across 54 sites so they could work through the backlog of tests needing processing.

Some people, desperate to be tested, drove further afield to testing sites in Melton, metropolitan Melbourne and other regional locations to be screened. Others gave up and went home to isolate.

The four private pathology companies process not only their own tests but around three quarters of the tests from state-run testing sites.

"These labs will continue to work 24/7 to deal with the backlog accumulated over the Christmas-New Year period. With 250,000 to 300,000 travel tests in the run-up to Christmas-New Year it has put them behind where they need to be and it's why so many Victorians are still waiting for test results to come through," Mr Weimar said.

In addition, the high rate of positive tests means a change in the way samples are "batched", reducing the number of tests that can be processed in a 24-hour period.

Mr Weimar said the labs had also been impacted with staff becoming contacts, having to isolate, or testing positive. The combination of factors has seen the number of test results returned within 24 hours drop to around 30 per cent, from about 90 a few weeks ago.

He pleaded for patience from people waiting longer than expected for their results.

"This is a really challenging time, and it will be a really challenging month as we face a far bigger wave than we have ever seen before."

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