Seventeen Ballarat residents have lost their lives to COVID-19 this year and with the continuing high rates of COVID infections in the community it's inevitable more lives will be lost, health experts have warned.
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But Ballarat's COVID death rate per capita is much lower than most other regional and metropolitan areas across the state.
"Seventeen deaths this year is ... a reflection of the significant number of cases of COVID in our community," said Grampians Health chief strategy and regions officer Dr Rob Grenfell.
In 2021 there were fewer than 10 deaths.
There have been 32,369 confirmed COVID cases this year alone in the Ballarat local government area, compared to 563 last year, but that is likely an under-reporting of actual cases with people not testing when they have symptoms, not reporting positive tests or relying on home tests that are not as likely to pick up all cases.
"By having that increasing number we unfortunately do have more people getting severe disease and we have seen, unfortunately, continued numbers of people dying from COVID as well ... and sadly it won't be unsurprising if that continues to follow on," Dr Grenfell said.
Ballarat has a per-capita COVID death rate of about 0.014 per cent. Compared to other regional centres, Ballarat's death rate is 30 per cent lower than Geelong which has recorded 55 deaths, about 20 per cent lower than Bendigo (22 deaths) and Mildura (15 deaths), and almost 70 per cent lower than Shepparton (30) and Macedon Ranges (21).
"Thankfully because of the high immunisation rate across our region we have nowhere near the level of those hospitalisations or deaths that we could have," Dr Grenfell said.
"We have had some of the lowest rates of hospitalisation across the state, which is credit to all the work our coordinated services have done across region and more importantly, our community. We also have the lowest rate of ICU admission compared to total COVID cases where we are below the state average and below the average for other regional Victorian centres."
Dr Grenfell said Ballarat appeared to be the most immunised region in Victoria, with a third-dose vaccination rate nearing 80 per cent but the fourth-dose take up rate for those eligible was far lower.
"If you are due for a booster dose, please get it because COVID has not gone away and it's your best protection.
"Because we have relaxed virtually all the public health measures the virus spreads quite freely through the community and the only real step we've got over severe disease is our vaccination level which is certainly demonstrating how strong and effective it is in reducing hospitalisation.
"If we were in the situation where were not highly vaccinated it would be like we saw in northern Italy at the start of the pandemic - horrific."
Eligibility for the fourth dose booster was widened this week to include people aged 16 to 64 with a medical condition that could increase the severity of COVID, and people with significant or complex health needs that would increase poor health outcomes, in addition to people aged 65+, aged and disability care residents, people over 16 who are immunocompromised, and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people over 50.
Deakin University epidemiologist Professor Catherine Bennett said original predictions that Omicron was a more mild version of the virus might be true when compared to Delta, but not when compared to the original variants.
"It's our immunity that makes the difference, particularly the booster vaccine, which does protect against serious illness but not as well as it did against the others (earlier strains)," she said.
"But higher booster rates mean we would expect to see lower case fatalities and a smaller proportion of cases ending up in hospital."
The virus continues to mutate, with new Omicron sub-variants including the BA.4 and BA.5 strains detected in the past weeks in several parts of Melbourne, and in Geelong.
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Dr Grenfell reiterated that vaccination was never going to stop COVID sweeping through the community, but it would reduce the severity of the illness.
The use of new anti-viral treatments, limited to those vulnerable to severe illness, had also contributed to keeping Ballarat's COVID hospitalisation and death rates low.
"We have seen how strongly they work, particularly for very vulnerable poeple. There's no doubt they have prevented people from going on to get severe disease or dying," he said.
But these treatments are only available through doctors or after a positive RAT or PCR test is logged with the health department, underscoring the importance of registering a confirmed test.
"What happens if you have a positive test and it is logged you are in fact actually alerting the system and they will do risk profile on you. Right across the region health services are following many people on a daily basis to see how they are going on a clinical status ... and if you fit in to one of the high risk groups you might be eligible to get that antiviral treatment," he said.
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