A LACK of surveillance to measure long COVID in communities is putting the nation into a precarious position, health economist Martin Hensher warns.
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Australia is not alone in this but Professor Hensher argues there is a chance for the government to get things moving - and fast - to capture the first major wave of long COVID cases to best direct a response and community awareness.
Ballarat's first serious uptake in cases from the COVID-19 Omicron variant was sparked in the Christmas-New Year holidays. Long COVID symptoms are tipped to emerge now, about four months after initial infection.
This comes as active COVID-19 cases in Ballarat have persisted above 100 infections across the city the past week, peaking at 1220 known cases on Friday, leading into the school holidays.
Professor Hensher said most of what was known about long COVID was from the virus' initial Alpha strain and a bit of Delta. While he said it was "deeply unlikely" Omicron would cause widespread long COVID, particularly among high vaccination rates, there remained so much unknown.
The University of Tasmania-based Professor Hensher has led a Deakin University team in trying to study the effects of long COVID. He said surveys would help offer a clearer picture to get a grip on disruptions to workplaces and poeple reporting disability.
"It's like a complicated Venn diagram," Professor Hensher said. "Without being an alarmist, when we talk long COVID, it's complex and two key things.
"Long COVID can particularly have this terrible fatigue - an inability in exertion, mass fatigue, brain fog and/or muscle problems. It'll be debilitating but not life threatening.
"There is also a much smaller number of people, but not a trivial number, showing identified damage to organs and this can lead to cardiac problems. lesions on the lungs or brain or various other organs and do clear damage.
"You might get sick, you might get other symptoms, you might feel fine. It's just another good reason to avoid getting infected in the first place."
It's like a complicated Venn diagram...You might get sick, you might get other symptoms, you might feel fine. It's just another good reason to avoid getting infected in the first place.
- Health economist Martin Hensher
In Ballarat, Grampians Public Health Unit infectious diseases doctor Aaron Bloch told The Courier this week there were not many recorded cases of long COVID but it was likely those with symptoms were presenting to general practitioners, rather than the hospital.
Dr Bloch agreed the best way to avoid long COVID was to avoid getting infected, and the best way to do that was to have COVID-19 vaccine boosters.
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Deakin University's long COVID modelling offered long ranges in estimates on how many people would experience the virus' long-term health effects. This could be anywhere from 80,000 and 325,000 of the more than two million Australians infected during the first Omicron wave alone.
Professor Hensher pointed to the United Kingdom as to how a large national survey could offer good data on long COVID and guide effective responses. He urged the government to act now, via the Australian Bureau of Statistics or Australian Institute of Health and Welfare or both.
Long COVID is recognised by the United States' Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, and by the World Health Organisation. Even so, these clinical definitions differ as does a clear time period from infection for a case to be deemed long COVID.
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