Advice issued for possible large hailstones and heavy rainfall in Ballarat

A severe thunderstorm for "damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall" has been issued for the Ballarat area, as storms continue to cross the state on Monday.

"Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours," the warning from the Bureau of Meteorology said.

"Locations which may be affected include Horsham, Bendigo, Maryborough, Castlemaine, Kyneton and Ballarat."

The wild weather has already caused havoc in the western part of Victoria, forcing the Stawell Gift to pause due to lightning and the track being flooded by a large downpour earlier in the afternoon.

An Advice message from the State Emergency Service which said people should be aware of potential hazards caused by the weather.

"...including floodwater, debris, damaged building, trees down and fallen power lines," the message said.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

UPDATE, 10am - MONDAY, APRIL 1, 2024:

A severe weather warning has been issued for the Ballarat region ahead of predicted damaging winds and heavy rain on Monday afternoon and into Tuesday morning.

The city could receive between 15 millimetres and 45mm of rain on Monday, according to the latest forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology, and up to six millimetres on Tuesday.

"A strengthening cold front moving across the southeast of the country will trigger thunderstorms across the west of the state during the morning," the warning said.

"These thunderstorms will develop into a cloud band during the afternoon and shift east overnight into Tuesday morning as an upper trough drags down moisture from northern Australia, leading to a risk of heavy rainfall.

"Heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding is forecast for the south west and western parts of the Central district with thunderstorms and areas of rain during the afternoon, shifting into eastern parts of the Central district overnight and into Tuesday morning.

"Six-hourly rainfall totals between 30 to 50 mm are likely, with isolated falls of 70 mm possible.

"Damaging wind gusts with peak gusts of around 90kmh are possible across the central and northeastern ranges from this evening."

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

It comes after Ballarat experienced a warm and dry Easter long weekend.

SUNDAY, MARCH 31, 2024:

Ballarat will swelter under its hottest Easter holiday in more than 60 years but it will change dramatically early next week as heavy rain falls across the region.

The Bureau of Meteorology forecast above average temperatures between Friday, March 29, and Monday, April 1, 2024, with Sunday being hottest day - headed for a top of 31 degrees.

It means this long weekend is Ballarat's warmest Easter since BoM daily maximum temperature records became available in 1957.

While the warm spell may have raised concerns of melted chocolates, it is also a worrying time for the city's firefighters.

After a Good Friday shed fire, Country Fire Authority Lieutenant Wayne Pengelly warned conditions in Ballarat were "tinder dry", owing to a lack of rainfall.

Just 0.8 millimetres of rain fell in Ballarat in March.

But it will be a different story as the new week - and month - begins, with rainfall between 15 millimetres and 45mm forecast on Monday, April 1, and between one and six millimetres possible on Tuesday, April 2.

As a result, the Bureau of Meteorology has issued severe weather warnings for the Central and parts of the South West, North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland districts.

"Heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding is forecast for the South West and western parts of the Central district with thunderstorms and areas of rain during Monday afternoon, shifting into eastern parts of the Central district overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning," the warning, issued on Sunday morning, said.

"Six-hourly rainfall totals between 30 to 50 mm are likely, with isolated falls of 70 mm possible.

"Damaging wind gusts, with peak gusts of around 90 kmh, are possible across the central and northeastern ranges from Monday evening.

"Heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts are forecast to ease below warning thresholds on Tuesday morning."

In comparison to 2024's average maximum of 27.5 degrees, the average high during last year's Easter long weekend was just 13.9 degrees.

April 2 to April 5, 2021, is the best recent comparison of a warm Easter, but the average maximums three-years ago were about two degrees cooler than this year's long weekend forecast.

While it's important to note the date of Easter changes each year, and this year's holiday comes earlier than most, numerous Easters which fell in March and early April were much colder.

In 2016, when Easter Sunday fell on March 27, the average maximum across the weekend was nearly 10 degrees cooler than in 2024.

Similarly in 2008, between Good Friday on March 21 and Easter Monday on March 24, maximum temperatures were also cooler with an average of 23.5 degrees.

In fact, if the mercury does tip above 30 degrees on Sunday, it will be the first time this has happened during a Ballarat Easter.

Ballarat's previous highest Easter holiday temperatures were 29.9 degrees on April 5, 1958 and 29.6 degrees on April 12, 1968.