Demand for services at Ballarat Base Hospital has grown more than twice as fast as expected over the past five years, causing concern about the hospital's ability to cope even after a massive redevelopment is completed.
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Plans for the $541.6 million redevelopment were based on demand for services growing at less than 2.9 per cent but according to a Grampians Health business case study the demand increased 5.8 per cent over the five years to July 2021.
"While the planned redevelopment will expand capacity in Ballarat, the rates of service growth are higher than those used to plan the redevelopment," the Grampians Health business case study stated.
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The Ballarat Base Hospital redevelopment, the biggest build in the city's history, is designed to future-proof healthcare for the booming Ballarat region which, in the Ballarat LGA alone, has grown almost 12 per cent over five years from 101,686 to 113,763 people.
The Grampians Health business case study was prepared and presented to government last year to lobby for a merger between Ballarat Health Services, Edenhope & District Memorial Hospital, Stawell Regional Health and Wimmera Health Care Group. It was approved by then-health minister Martin Foley and the four services merged to become Grampians Health on November 1.
Grampians Health chief executive Dale Fraser assured the community the Ballarat Base redevelopment would meet the needs of the growing community.
"As part of our initial work as Grampians Health, we are undertaking strategic planning for infrastructure to service the needs of our community into the future - and beyond the completion of the Ballarat Base Hospital," Mr Fraser said.
In addition, he said the hospital demand projections had "materially altered" as a consequence of COVID over the past two years.
"As a result, the gap between growth and projections has narrowed, and with continued impacts from COVID will narrow further. Nonetheless, service demand growth and infrastructure capable of meeting those needs remains an ongoing challenge," he said.
The Grampians Health business plan identified an increasing number of patients from the Wimmera region seeking treatment at Ballarat that they could not receive at health services closer to their homes - and Mr Fraser said in the first six months of Grampians Health several measures had been put in place to improve access to care in local communities.
"In the past six months ... we have been able to provide greater access to local services in Horsham, Edenhope and Stawell, which has meant fewer people have needed to travel to Ballarat for care," he said.
Specialist rehabilitation services have recommenced in Horsham, increased pediatrics services are now available in Horsham, Stawell, Ararat and Maryborough along with expanded telehealth options, an addition nurse practitioner and occupational therapist now work in clinical settings and the aged care facility at Edenhope, day oncology has reopened in Stawell, and a regional obstetrician now works to increase collaboration across local services.
That is in addition to the whole-of-region coordinated COVID-19 response, which includes sharing staff across sites when there's a need to help with COVID challenges.
"Each of these initiatives have helped to reduce the demand in Ballarat, with patients from surrounding areas now able to access care closer to home," Mr Fraser said.
When completed in 2027 the redevelopment will deliver a new emergency department, a women and children's hub, state-of-the-art theatre suite and an extra 100 inpatient and short stay beds. A new critical care floor will bring together operating theatres, procedure rooms, an expanded intensive care unit, endoscopy suites and consulting rooms with capacity for an extra 4000 surgeries a year.
The upgrade will allow Ballarat Base Hospital to treat at least 18,000 more emergency patients and an extra 14,500 inpatients a year.
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The business case study also revealed that it would cost $5 million for the merger to occur, but it would result in longer term cost savings, improved health outcomes, a larger and higher capability health service able to recruit and develop a larger number of clinicians, particularly surgeons and specialists, and keep people closer to their communities.
Mr Fraser said since the business case was written in early 2021, there had been a substantial amount of work undertaken to further understand the health issues faced in the region and how Grampians Health might respond.
"We have engaged in extensive planning and community consultation to ensure the redevelopment meets the increasing demand as Ballarat grows," said a Department of Health and Human Services Victoria spokesperson.
Tenders for stage two of the hospital redevelopment are now out, with main designs on track to be released later this year, with the main building including future proofing to meet demand projections.
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